- New government will face pressure in shaping fate of the country
- Flow of remittances will be smooth in 2024
Interview with Mr. Altaf Hussain — an analyst from Quetta
PAGE: How do you see 2024 vis-à-vis 2023 in terms of inflationary pressures in Pakistan?
Altaf Hussain: To get the most accurate and up-to-date information on inflationary pressures in Pakistan for 2023 and 2024, I recommend checking latest reports from reputable sources such as the State Bank of Pakistan, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics etc. These organisations regularly release economic data and forecasts that can provide insights into the country’s economy. Based on historical data and my knowledge, the 2024 will be a challenging year for Pakistan. In the last 3 months of 2023, there was a historical increase in the stock market and the Pakistan rupee achieved gains against US dollar, fuel and edible oil prices were decreased but there was increase in energy tariff rates, automobile sector, textile industry, transport and fare charges and many other commodities, which results in increased inflation. In our country, unluckily, the price of a commodity if once increased will not be reversed back and the Price Control Authority has failed in regularisation and implementation of the prices fixed by the government. As Pakistan is going through elections in first quarter of 2024, so the coming government will be under immense pressure and will be responsible for the fate of Pakistan.
The economy of country depends on the policies, projects and investments by the government and how the government deals with IMF, can Pakistan be successful to get out of the FATF’s grey list, will CPEC be functional, how new jobs will be created and unemployment is dealt with, the trade relation with the neighbours, middle east countries and rest of the world, the law and order situation and deportation of Afghan refugees.
PAGE: Energy prices were rather exorbitant over the course of preceding couple of years. What is your stand point on energy prices in 2024?
Altaf Hussain: Over the course of preceding couple of years, the energy prices have increased too much in Pakistan. Pakistan is in severe energy crisis. As per many reports and news during the couple of years we came to know that many of the gas reservoirs are at the last stages of their useful life and new reservoirs (those discovered) due to political, financial and infrastructure hurdles, could not made operational yet. That’s why CNG pumps were made limited in numbers and fueling time is also restricted. And also households are provided gas on hourly basis during 24 hours.
When we see towards the electricity charges, there is not only the increase in prices and taxes, the power outage durations has also increased. Industry sector are facing much problems and many has winded up due to huge losses. Looking to the other sources of energy like solar panel system and wind turbine system, unfortunately, shifting of power usage on these two sources is not easy, due to high purchase, maintenance and wages and technological barriers. In the above lines I have just put a glance on the situation in the previous year, so relating 2024 with past years, it indicates that energy prices will rise further as the government is collecting money by increasing the prices, taxes and duties to pay the interest and its debts and also to meet other needs and expenses.
PAGE: Flow of remittances has not been promising in 2022 and 2023. How do you anticipate in 2024?
Altaf Hussain: Reviewing the flow of remittances in 2022 and 2023, many of the businesses, fertile lands, crops, infrastructures were destroyed by the flood. A huge chunk of population was affected by the flood. And many areas and cities were disconnected from others and were not accessible for months. It resulted in instant shortage of food, medicines, residence etc. which resulted in delay of payments. The last quarter of 2023, we have noticed huge increase in stock exchange and new foreign investments are coming in 2024, so we are hopeful that government will exploit every opportunity at its best. When there is investment the business cycle starts running and as we are listening to positive moves from many sectors so we are hopeful that flow of remittances will be smooth in 2024.
PAGE: Some European countries are in dire need of workforce. Countries in the Arab peninsula also need workforce. What should Pakistan government do to capitalize on such scenario?
Altaf Hussain: The European and Arab countries in dire need of workforce, the one side is that it is a good opportunity which government should capitalise to earn foreign revenues and providing employment. For capitalising such opportunities, I think, government should make agreement with those governments to consider employment quota for different job levels, sign MoUs to get better level employments and skills. The government should also seek for the qualification and skill level required in foreign countries and provide such level education and training institutes to meet their demands and capture those opportunities.
On the other hand government should also consider its effect on the working human resource of the country. Decrease in the workforce of a country will affect its business operations and economic activities. So, the government should analyse what type and level of jobs are available, what type of workforce is needed, what will be the future growth of that workforce, will government provide any internal opportunity in the future for that workforce to get benefit from their skills and comparison of the foreign revenues and internal revenues which can be earned by the workforce must be considered.