As per the government of Pakistan report, during July-March FY 2025, total sectoral consumption of petroleum products reached at 13.17 million metric tons (MMT), registering a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 7.04 percent compared to 12.30 MMT during the same period of FY 2024). Statistics showed that the transport sector, which remains the dominant consumer, registered a 7.99 percent increase in consumption, rising from 9.76 MMT in July-March FY 2024 to 10.54 MMT (80 percent of total demand) in the corresponding period of FY 2025. This growth is indicative of increased mobility, recovery in trade and logistics, and higher fuel demand from road transport and commercial vehicles. In contrast, the industrial sector saw a fall of 7.35 percent, with consumption dropping from 815.32 thousand metric tons (MT) to 755.40 thousand MT (7 percent of total demand). This fall may be attributed to lower industrial output in certain energy-intensive sub-sectors or improved fuel switching towards cheaper alternatives such as natural gas and renewables. A substantial decline of 77.68 percent was registered in the power sector’s petroleum usage, which declined to just 116.21 thousand MT during July-March FY 2025. This significant drop reflects the shift toward hydropower, nuclear, coal (particularly Thar coal), and imported LNG in power generation, reducing the reliance on furnace oil-based generation. The domestic sector saw a moderate increase of 7.34 percent, while the agriculture sector’s consumption slightly fell by 3.35 percent, likely because of improved mechanization and marginally lower seasonal demand. Meanwhile, the government sector recorded a modest increase of 3.27 percent in petroleum usage. Notably, the overseas sector (which includes bunker sales and other exports) experienced a significant surge of 57.18 percent, increasing from 948.03 thousand MT in July-March FY2024 to 1,490.11 thousand MT in the same period of FY 2025. This sharp rise is largely driven by enhanced shipping activity and increased refueling demands at Pakistani ports.
| OPEC+ Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Details | Feb-26 Supply | Mar-26 Supply | Mar-26 vs Target | Mar-26 Implied Target |
Sustainable Capacity | Eff Spare Cap vs Mar |
| Total OPEC-9 | 23.99 | 15.22 | -8.01 | 23.23 | 27.1 | 0.13 |
| Total OPEC | 29.82 | 21.07 | – | – | 33.18 | 0.2 |
| Total Non-OPEC | 13.55 | 14.17 | 0.03 | 12.75 | 14.84 | 0.12 |
| OPEC+ 18 in Nov 2022 deal5 | 36.14 | 28 | -7.98 | 35.98 | 40.43 | 0.14 |
| Total OPEC+ | 43.37 | 35.24 | – | – | 48.01 | 0.32 |
The government of Pakistan presently said that our country’s oil import bill has jumped 167 percent to $800 million per week amid the war in Iran from approximately $300 million weekly before the conflict began. Brent crude for June delivery was trading at $114.75 per barrel , a big jump from the low 70s before the war, while the corresponding WTI crude contract was changing hands at $103.33/bbl from mid 60s in late February. Industry experts recorded that Pakistan’s economy remains highly vulnerable to worldwide oil price volatility, with present geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reinforcing this cycle. Pakistan’s total oil consumption hovers almost 440,000 bpd, five times domestic production of 80,000-90,000 bpd, forcing the country to rely on imports to meet 80 percent of its needs. Elevated global oil prices have caused petrol prices in Pakistan to hit unprecedented highs, driving up transportation, energy, and overall consumer costs. Additionally, when oil prices rise, Pakistan must spend more of its limited foreign exchange reserves, often leading to currency devaluation, which makes everything else more expensive. Experts warn that persistent high energy prices could slow GDP growth to 1.8 percent for FY2027, down from earlier estimates of 3.2 percent. No doubt the present government is aggressively implementing nationwide energy conservation measures to mitigate a severe fuel crisis with some degree of success. Public sector offices are moving to a four-day work week, with 50 percent of staff working from home, except for essential services. Markets, shopping malls and commercial centers in Pakistan are required to close by 8:00 pm local time while restaurants, cafes and bakeries are required to shut by 10:00 pm. Approximately 60 percent of official vehicles have been grounded, and fuel allowances for government departments slashed by 50 percent. On the other hand, the sources recorded that the government of Pakistan has extended the deadline for importing crude oil and petroleum products on relaxed rules up to July 10, 2026, enabling the petroleum companies to continue fuel purchase on easy terms and conditions i.e. cost, insurance and freight (CIF) basis from the war-troubled global markets. Statistics showed that importing oil via one ship [used to] cost somewhere $30-50 million. It is said that the local insurance firms refused to insure the imports after worldwide insurance firms fell to reinsure Pakistani insurance firms amid the tension in Strait of Hormuz – the passage that is used to transport some 20 percent of global petroleum oil. It is also said that the CIF conditions allow global sellers to supply oil to Pakistani firms on their own ships after getting insured the loaded oil and the oil-ships from global insurance firms. This means the sellers take the risk of transporting the products to local firms. Earlier, local oil firms used to send a ship to fetch oil, while they used to get the oil insured through local insurance firms under FoB (freight on board) and C&F (cost and freight) – where the risk of transporting oil from global to local ports remained with local buyers. The import of petroleum products on CIF basis was costing some 3 to 5 percent lower compared to through FoB and C&F basis in peaceful days. The cost of oil import surged to $800 million a week during the ongoing geopolitical tension compared to $300 million before the latest ME conflict erupted in February 2026.