International experts identified that the world oil demand growth forecast for 2022 remains equal to last month’s assessment at 2.5 mb/d. The OECD demand in 4Q22 was adjusted downward to reflect the latest fats but non-OECD demand in 4Q22 was revised higher because of improvements in economic activity in some states and a slight recovery in oil demand in China after the lifting of its zero-Covid-19 strategy.
| Pakistan: Import Payments By Petroleum Groups (Thousand US Dollar) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petroleum Group | Jul-Jun | Jan FY22 |
Dec(R)FY23 | Jan(P) FY23 |
Jul-Jan | ||
| FY21 | FY22 | FY22 | FY23 P | ||||
| Petroleum Products | 4,640,569 | 10,296,177 | 661,981 | 513,421 | 578,111 | 5,116,841 | 5,895,716 |
| Petroleum Crude | 3,189,888 | 4,601,532 | 182,657 | 445,322 | 341,508 | 2,650,750 | 3,069,045 |
| Natural Gas, Liquified | 1,776,145 | 3,681,125 | 244,927 | 283,306 | 318,766 | 1,835,881 | 2,264,709 |
| Petroleum Gas, Liquified | 133,556 | 163,571 | 18,810 | 22,584 | 22,050 | 75,445 | 96,354 |
| Others | 6,908 | 749 | 26 | 14 | – | 614 | 668 |
For 2023 the experts also identified that world oil demand growth is adjusted slightly upwards by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to rise by approximately 0.4 mb/d and non-OECD at about 2.0 mb/d. Non-OPEC liquids supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d in 2022, largely unchanged from the last assessment.
Downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia were mainly offset by upward revisions to liquids production in Russia. It is also identified that the main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are seen to be the US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest falls are expected from Norway and Thailand.
For 2023, non-OPEC liquids production growth is revised slightly down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The Main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while falls are forecast in Russia and Mexico.
Nevertheless, large uncertainties remain over the impact of ongoing geopolitical developments, also US shale output in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to an average of 5.39 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to an average of 5.44 mb/d in 2023.
According to the sources, OPEC-13 crude oil production in January declined by 49 tb/d m-o-m to an average of 28.88 mb/d in developing countries like Pakistan, in the economic survey FY 2022 the government of Pakistan recorded oil import bill increased by 95.9 percent to US$17.03 billion July-April FY2022 as against to US$8.69 billion during the same period last year. Further breakup showed that the import of petroleum products went up by 121.15 percent in value and 24.18 percent in quantity. During July-April FY2022, the import of petroleum products rose to US$8.55 billion in July-April FY2022 as against US$3.87 billion during July-April 2021.
The crude oil imports grew by 75.1 percent in value and 1.4 percent in quantity during the period under review. Petroleum crude stood at US$4.22 billion July-April FY2022 as compared to US$2.41 billion in the corresponding period in FY2021. During July-March FY2022, the total processed imported crude stood at million metric tons while processed local crude was recorded at 2.31 million metric tons.
Presently the federal government has raised the price of petrol to a historic high in a bid to appease IMF for unlocking the critical loan tranche. Statistics showed that the price of petrol has been increased to Rs272 per litre after a rise of Rs22.20. it is recorded that the Pakistani rupee has fallen sharply against the dollar since an artificial cap on the local currency was removed the previous month to allow its value to be planned through a market-based exchange rate.
Statistics also showed that the price of high-speed diesel has been raised to Rs280 per litre after a hike of Rs17.20. Kerosene oil will now be available at Rs202.73 per litre following a Rs12.90 hike. Meanwhile, light diesel oil will be available at Rs196.68 per litre after an increase of Rs9.68. Sources pointed out that the rise in the price of petroleum products was one of the preconditions of the Washington-based lender, which will lead to a hike in the already record-high inflation.