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Market starts year on bullish note with investors confidence tossing index up 2.7% wow
Summary

There is optimism starting from the top as expectation that world economy is expected to expand 4% in 2021 by the World Bank. The impact is trickling down to local investors as government has set a GDP growth target of 2.1 percent for the current fiscal year while State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) says GDP to grow 1.5-2.5 percent. The biggest challenge of Covid-19, which still exists on the second wave, seemed to be affectively tackled like the first wave, as believed by the investors. The economic indicators of the economy of fiscal deficit, trade deficit, remittances collections, rising foreign reserves exchange and rupee stability is moving towards strengthening the economy. The stock market has dipped to its lowest on March 25 to 27,228 points and recovered to the level of 43,755 on 31st December 2020, a recovery of 16,527 points.

During the week the KSE-100 gained 1.219 points to close at 45,654.36. The volume increased by 18% to an average of 625m. The market capitalization added 178 billion to close at Rs8.311 trillion. The foreigners turned buyers to the value of $3.11 million.

On Monday, the market opened 600 points plus on the euphoria over the circular debt resolution. Energy stock share prices rose. The index gained 251.66 points to close at 44,686.46.

The rising trend of stock was arrested by four-day winning streak on Tuesday and index closed flat down by 36.03 points. The index closed at 44,650.43 points.

The market had a bullish trend on Wednesday. The foreigners who were buyer turned buyer by $1.37. Market gained 512.99 points to close at 45,153.42.

On Thursday, the market had see-saw trading as government was under pressure after the Hazara massacre incident. The index gained 191.12 points to close at 45,344.54 points.

The market upward drive continued on Friday. The KSE-100 index added 309.80 points to close the week at 45,654.34. The volume was the highest of the week of 696m.

Participants/Activity

On average shares of 412 companies were traded. Of these 201 were gainers and 193 were losers and 17 remained unchanged.

Banks were seller $8.06m Mutual fund net buyers $19.53m, Insurance seller $8.11m and Individual seller $3.31m.

Volume leaders were: Byco Petroleum 256m; Pak Refinery; Hum net work 141m; Kot Adu Power 89m; Pak Elektron 73m; Hascol Petroleum 54m; TRG Pak Ltd 53m; K-Electric 37m; Power Cement 34m; World Telecom 23m; Hub Power Co 25m and Lotte Chemical 23m.

Triggers

— The foreign exchange reserve held by SBP increased by $261 million to $13.412 billion during the week ended Dec31. The forex holding of banks edged down to $7.099 billion from $7.103 billion.

— New textile policy will lift the textile and clothing exports to a minimum of $15.7 billion and maximum of $20.8bn by end of year 2025.

— December 2021 trade deficit widens by 32 percent to $2.683 billion in December from $2.032 billion over the same month last year.

— July-December cement despatches jump 16 percent to 28.628 million tonnes compared to 24.751 tonnes during the same period last year.

— KE granted license for building pipeline for transportation of natural gas/liquefied natural gas to its upcoming 900MW power plant at Bin Qasim.

Conclusion

Market gurus have predicted KSE-100 index to settle between 52,500 to 60,000 by the end of December 2021. The projected return is around is around 29 percent. Corporate sector performance in 2020 was outstanding of around 59 percent return particularly technology, communication, banking, textile and fertilizers. Sector oil and exploration will depend on international oil prices. It is expected that in 2021 the economy should further improve with government plan to introduce textile policy, automobile policy and digitalization of the economy.

Raees Uddin Khan,
Research & Development Institute of Securities Management Research& Training (Pvt) Ltd, Karachi
Dated: Jan 9, 2021

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