IMF forecasts 1.3pc contraction in Pakistan
The IMF on Thursday forecast a sharp drop in economic output in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan this year due to the US-Israeli-led war against Iran, followed by a rebound to 6.6 percent growth in , while warning that further energy production disruptions could worsen the outlook.
The International Monetary Fund said the region’s output was expected to contract by 1.3 percent as a result of the war’s impact on energy production, shipping, tourism, trade and confidence. Economic output would increase sharply in 2027, but output in those economies would generally stay below pre-war projections.
The war’s impact had been substantial, but uneven, with oil-exporting economies directly affected by disruptions to energy production and shipping hit harder, and oil importers proving to be more resilient, the IMF said in its regional outlook released Thursday in Dubai.
Government mulls $2bn LNG import decision
The government is sitting on a decision to import an estimated $2 billion worth of gas to cope with winter demand, despite the Petroleum Division’s advice to begin the import process from the first week of October to avoid any disruption of supplies and social unrest.
The Petroleum Division had cautioned that due to any further delay in importing the gas, the government may have to resort to disconnecting supplies to the industry, power, fertiliser, compressed natural gas (CNG) and cement sectors to make sure residential consumers keep getting rationalised supplies and unrest is avoided.
But the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCOE) has not yet taken up the gas load management summary of the Petroleum Division, which had sought authorisation for import of 22 cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), some of those to be sourced from the United States and Azerbaijan, according to government officials.
The division had sent a summary to the CCOE last month after finalising the demand for the import of 22 LNG cargoes in consultation with the Task Force on Power Sector Reforms and the National Coordination and Management Council (NCMC).
Closer ties with foreign firms
A foreign investor builds a factory in Pakistan, employs local workers and sells its products in the domestic market. Production rises, jobs are created and business activity expands. Yet if the factory depends heavily on imported machinery and materials, earns its revenue in rupees and sends part of its profits overseas, its contribution to the country’s foreign exchange position may remain limited.
Now consider a different arrangement. A Pakistani manufacturer joins hands with an overseas company, adopts its technology, improves production standards and begins supplying customers in international markets. The partnership creates jobs at home while bringing in export earnings. Local suppliers may also benefit as the business expands.
For Pakistan, where the demand for dollars regularly outpaces the economy’s ability to earn them through merchandise exports, the difference between these two investment models deserves greater attention.
‘Urdu AI Model Buraq’
Pakistan is building Buraq, its own large language model trained on Urdu and regional languages, and procuring sovereign compute capacity so that Pakistani data is processed within Pakistan, Federal Minister for IT and Telecom said at the Global AI and Digital Summit 2026 in Seoul.
The minister told a World Bank panel on digital government service delivery that the model, and the public compute capacity behind it, form the AI layer of a programme built on four foundations, according to a statement issued by the Ministry of IT on Wednesday.
On digital identity, the National Database and Registration Authority provides verified identity to more than 100 million Pakistanis, now extended into a digital identity that authenticates citizens online and records and enforces consent. On payments, the State Bank’s Raast instant payment rail turns an AI model’s identification of a qualifying household into delivery.
On data, WASL, the national exchange layer of the Digital Public Infrastructure stack built under the World Bank-supported Digital Economy Enhancement Project, lets institutions share data with every transaction authenticated, encrypted and logged.
Pakistan, US near trade agreement
Pakistan and the United States have achieved substantial progress on several important provisions of their proposed bilateral reciprocal trade agreement, with only a few technical points left to be discussed with the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Commerce Secretary Jawad Paul told a meeting chaired by Federal Minister for Commerce Jam Kamal Khan.
The review of the negotiations came during a meeting between the commerce minister and US Chargé d’Affaires Natalie A Baker to discuss bilateral economic relations, market access and cooperation in agriculture, minerals, technology and investment, according to a statement issued on Tuesday. Both sides expressed commitment to advancing discussions towards a mutually beneficial outcome.
The meeting also discussed market access for Pakistani agricultural products, particularly mangoes and dates. Paul highlighted the need to expedite the visit of relevant US inspection teams for mango export arrangements and sought progress on the pending market access process for Pakistani dates, saying greater access would create export opportunities for growers, particularly in Balochistan. The US delegation indicated willingness to follow up with relevant American authorities.
Apparel sector takes its case
The Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers & Exporters Association (PRGMEA) will represent the value-added apparel sector at the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026, pressing for textile decarbonisation, climate finance and support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). PRGMEA holds Permanent Observer Organisation status under the UNFCCC. Despite contributing less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan remains vulnerable to climate change.