PSX benchmark index up 2.8%WoW
Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum during the week, driven by investor optimism following the announcement that the IMF Executive Board will meet on December 08, 2025, to consider and approve third tranche of US$1.2 billion for Pakistan. The benchmark index was up 4,575 points during the week, up 2.8%WoW, to close at 166,678 points. However, market participation weakened by 14.2% WoW with average daily traded volume down to 1.1 billion shares, as compared to 1.3 billion shares in the prior week.
Sentiment further boosted after Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik announced that Reko Diq is close to achieving financial close with US$3.5 billion in loans secured, sparking a strong rally in the Oil and Gas Exploration sector. The inclusion of FFC in the Shariah-compliant index fueled a surge in the scrip.
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$9 million to US$14.6 billion as of Nov 21, 2025.
Other major news flow during the week included, 1) SIFC unveils business-friendly roadmap, 2) PM Shehbaz eyes US$1 billion trade with Bahrain in three years, 3) Chinese group to establish US$1.5 billion industrial park on 300 acres, 4) Food Exhibition 2025 draws strong international interest as B2B deals reach US$615 million, and 5) IMF recognizes Competition Commission of Pakistan’s major turnaround.
Leather & Tanneries, Fertilizer, Commercial Banks, Technology & Communication and Cement were amongst the top performers, while Jute, Modarabas, Refinery, Leasing Companies and Glass & Ceramics were amongst the worst performers.
Flow wise, major buying was recorded by Banks/ DFIs and Mutual Funds with a net buy of US$14.5 million and US$9.5 million during the week, respectively. Foreigners & Individuals were major sellers with net sell of US$12.9 million and US$9.1 million, respectively.
Top performing scrips of the week were: SSGC, SRVI, PIOC, HUMNL and FATIMA, while laggards included: PKGP, BWCL, YOUW, CNERGY and ATRL.
AKD Securities foresee the momentum at PSX to continue given successful IMF Executive Board approval of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.
Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the US and Saudi Arabia.
This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities.
Top picks of AKD Securities include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, and INDU.
Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) held its analyst briefing, where-in the following was discussed: Company’s net sales were reported at PKR401 billion during the year, down 13%YoY. The decline was a direct impact of lower average oil prices and forced production curtailments during the year.
OGDC reported profit after tax of PR170 billion (EPS: PkR39.5) during FY25, down by 19%YoY. For 1QFY26, company reported earnings of PKR38.3 billion (EPS: PKR8.9), down 7% YoY. Furthermore, company also announced dividend of PKR3.5/ share during the first quarter.
Production activity during FY25 included: crude oil at 30,919 bpd (down 6.6%YoY), natural gas at 652mmcfd (down 9.1%YoY) and LPG at 642 tons per day (down 10.5%YoY).
In the absence of forced curtailment by SNGPL and Uch Power, cumulative volumes from Nashpa, Chanda, Dhok Hussain, Togh, Bettani, TAL and Uch fields would have been higher by 1.8k bpd of oil, 91mmcfd of gas and 72 tpd of LPG during the year.
OGDC’s recoverable gas reserves stand at 118 million boe of oil and 5.8 tcf of gas as of June 2025, representing 49% and 31% of the country’s reserves, respectively.
Company drilled 15 wells, which yielded five new discoveries during the year. Company also acquired 750sq km of 2D and 1,051sq km of 3D seis mic data during the year.
Bettani field’s current output stands at 34 mmcfd gas and 2,600 bpd oil, with long term development potential between 70–100 mmcfd, with only 30–35% developed currently as per management.
Shewa well (OGDC stake: 35%) is producing 67 mmcfd via the EPF facility, with management anticipating higher output over the next 3 years.
Company’s cash collection ratio reached 109% in FY25, with management noting that the recent increase in consumer gas prices has contributed positively to col lections.
Management is hopeful for settlement of backlog of overdue receivables over coming 1-2 years, citing high-level engagement by authorities.
Reko Diq’s Phase-1 is expected to commence production by 2028, with first dividend to OGDC (8.33% stake) expected in FY31–32 at US$150–200 million.
Management expects production commencement from the ADNOC Offshore Block-5 during FY28-29, with operator holding 60% share in the production phase. Company has a gas supply contract with Uch-1 and Uch-2 Power Plants until 2028 and 2035.
Management clarified Barrick Gold’s portfolio restructuring won’t impact Reko Diq progress, as clarified by BG board, with the project remains a key asset with multi-party international backing.
AKD Securities reiterates its ‘BUY’ stance on OGDC with a December 2025 target price of PKR371/ share, alongside a dividend yield of 7% during the same period.
Its outlook is strengthened due to the following aspects: 1) strong production profile, alongside consistent reserve replacement, 2) higher future exploration prospects on back of improving liquidity situation, 3) a 8.33% stake in highly prospective Reko Diq Mining Project, 4) off shore working interests in Abu Dhabi Offshore Block-5, along with consortium partners and 5) improvement in cash flow.