Economy: GCC thrives on the dual engine
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) entered 2025 with a clearer dynamic known as the “non-oil economy driving growth alongside hydrocarbon production dual engine”: non-oil growth ensuring the majority of progress, while hydrocarbons remained limited by previously decided OPEC+ quotas. This pattern is particularly visible in the United Arab Emirates where, in the first quarter, the overall GDP grew by 3.9 percent year-on-year, with a 5.3 percent increase in the non-oil sector, which now represents 77 percent of the economy. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also showed strong non-oil momentum.
In the second half, the negative impact of oil should gradually diminish with the gradual dismantling of OPEC+’s voluntary cuts. This evolution preserves non-oil momentum while allowing the oil sector to positively contribute to GDP towards the end of 2025 and in 2026.
UAE is the least likely country to experience economic unrest
The United Arab Emirates has been named the country least likely to experience economic instability, according to the latest World Security Report. Experts say the ranking reflects the UAE’s strong reputation as one of the safest and most resilient business environments globally.
Only 29 percent of security leaders in the UAE believe economic instability could present a security challenge in the coming year — significantly lower than the regional average of 41 percent and the global average of 44 percent.
The findings come from a survey conducted by Allied Universal and its international arm G4S, covering 2,352 chief security officers across 31 countries.
The GCC states’ networked approach to geo-economic resilience
Since the onset of the ongoing trade war between China and the United States in 2017, GCC states have embarked on a trade-liberalisation frenzy. Ending a decade of paralysis, the GCC bloc – comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE – has launched 12 collective free-trade-agreement (FTA) negotiations. More concerned with speed and scale than group cohesion, individual GCC member states, most notably the UAE, have also concluded bilateral comprehensive-economic-partnership agreements (CEPAs) with at least 29 countries, including several G20 economies: Australia, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Korea, and Turkiye. Discriminatory tariff regimes and geopolitical frictions create opportunities for arbitrage and openings for ‘connector countries’ to act as trade superhighways in an otherwise throttled trading system. To cement their positions as trading hubs in a fragmenting global economy, the GCC states are pursuing a multi-pronged strategy that involves negotiating preferential access to key markets and building enhanced connectivity infrastructure while maintaining geopolitical neutrality.
D.Little: for GCC resilience, water as an economic driver
Arthur D. Little (ADL) has released new findings demonstrating that water must be recognized not only as a natural resource but as a key driver of economic activity and national resilience. With the Middle East home to 6 percent of the global population but holding less than 1 percent of the world’s renewable water resources, adopting economic valuation methodologies as part of broader water management strategies to ensure lasting access for generations to come is becoming increasingly important particularly for GCC states facing decline in non-renewable water resources.
International case studies illustrate the practical impact of using economic valuation of water in making policy decisions. In Jordan, agriculture consumes nearly 60 percent of water resources, yet a comprehensive water valuation study showed that prioritizing high-value crops such as cucumbers and strawberries over low-value, water-intensive crops like alfalfa could raise the average economic value of water nearly threefold, from JD 0.40 per cubic meter to JD 1.10.
UAE showcases digital economy leadership
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) participated as an official Guest of Honour, alongside Indonesia, emphasizing its strong international standing in digital transformation, commitment to advancing the knowledge economy and pivotal role in strengthening global digital trade partnerships.
This year’s edition featured innovations in artificial intelligence, digital health, virtual reality, e-commerce, the digital economy, cybersecurity and smart city technologies.
Through its national pavilion, the UAE highlighted key projects in digital economy, financial technology, artificial intelligence, and smart innovations.
Abdullah Al Bashi Al Naemi, Commercial Attaché of the UAE to the People’s Republic of China, emphasized that the country’s participation showes the depth of UAE-China economic relations and reinforces the UAE’s position as a leading player in the global digital economy.
UAE introduces government scholarships
A new initiative designed to prepare future-ready government leaders in partnership with some of the world’s top academic institutions was launched.
The ‘Mohammed bin Rashid Government Fellowships’ initiative fellowships are not merely educational opportunities, they are strategic investments in the human capital that will shape the UAE’s future.
“This is the path toward the better future we strive for, one that secures lasting prosperity for our country and its people,” Mohammed bin Abdullah Al Gergawi, Minister of Cabinet Affairs noted.
The initiative begins with two specialised master’s programmes: Economic Strategies and International Policy, and Artificial Intelligence for the Government Sector.
These will be offered in collaboration with globally renowned universities known for academic excellence and public sector innovation, selected on the basis of the 2026 global university rankings and their record in executive education.