Economic infirmity keeps kse-100 index range bound
Summary
Economic infirmity is defined as a country’s under stress macroeconomic indicators particularly its current account deficit and reliance on loans has emerged as major determinant of economic progress of the country and its prosperity.
The stock exchange during the week remained under lackluster performance as the investors remained on sidelines amid concern over a rising trade deficit, higher inflation and likely monetary tightening. The next Monetary Policy statement is on December 14, 2021.
During the week KSE-100 Index added 163 points by the close of Friday trading at 43,395.78. Due to the rising trade deficit and possibility of Policy Rate rise the participants in the stock market decreased by around 53% to average 204m. The market capitalisation increased by Rs40 billion to Rs7,454 trillion.
Trading Figures
Monday: 43,280.77 change +47.94, Vol 177m; Tuesday: 43,853.49 change +572.72 Vol 229m; Wednesday: 43,846.87 change -6.62 Vol.233 m; Thursday: 43,518.84 change -328.03 Vol 201m and Friday 43,395.78 change -123.06 Vol.179m
Participants/Activity
Foreigners were net seller $0.98m during the week; companies were buyer2.13m, Banks were seller $1.09m; Mutual fund net seller $4.24m individuals net buyer $1.33m and Insurance were buyer $0.71m.
Volume leaders during the week were: Hascol99m; Telecard 75m; TRG 52m; World Telecom 41m; Treet Corp 40m; Unity 30m; TPL Properties 24m; Pakistan Petroleum 10m and Byco Petroleum 9m.
Participants: Av.Total 333; Gain 140; Loss 174 and Unchanged 19
Triggers
- Cement sales jumped seven per cent year-on-year to 4.8m tonnes in November.
- Samsung TV plant begins production in Karachi its first TV line-up plant in collaboration with local firm in Karachi according to Adviser Razzak Dawood.
- Cellphone imports of manufactured or completely units declined by 73 per cent year-on-year to $179 million in the first five months of the current fiscal year from $661 m a year ago
- Steel bar prices rise to Rs.197,500 per tonne.
- Housing loans disbursement jumps by 80 per cent in 5MFY22. According to SBP data the disbursement increased by Rs.23.5 billion during the July-November period.
- Foreign exchange reserves of the SBP increased by $2.648 billion to $18.658 billion during the week ended on December 3. The SBP reserves rose after an inflow of $3 billion from the Saudi Fund for Development under an economic deal signed between two countries. The total reserves of the country rose to $25.15 billion while the holdings of the commercial banks were $6.492 during the week
- In line with recent hike in the central bank’s policy rate the Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS) increased profit rates on all national saving schemes by up to two per cent.
- Inflation during the week ended on Dec9 declined by 0.07 per cent, driven by a sharp drop in the prices of essential food items by data on Friday.
Conclusion
Rating agency Fitch’s projection that interest rate hike will continue in frontier markets facing external pressures such as Pakistan comes as no surprise. A State Bank of Pakistan (SBP’s) press release dated November 19 noted that “in continuation of efforts to make the process of monetary policy formulation more predictable and transparent in line with international best practices, the SBP has decided to increase the frequency of monetary policy reviews from six to eight times a year,” which fuelled speculation that interest rates would be raised in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for 14 December.
Raees Uddin Khan,
Research & Development, Institute of Securities Management Research & Training (Pvt) Ltd, Karachi
Dated: Dec11, 2021