Author: Shahid Anwar

Pakistan’s circular debt debate often begins and ends with one number: the stock outstanding at the end of the financial year. But that number, important as it is, does not tell the whole story. The more important question is what happened during the year. How much financial pressure entered the system? What caused it? How much was paid, adjusted or settled? And, most importantly, are the underlying causes of new accumulation being reduced? At June 2026, power-sector circular debt stood at Rs. 1.675 trillion, compared with Rs. 1.614 trillion a year earlier, an increase of only Rs. 61 billion. At…

Before building more, Pakistan must make better use of what it already has Pakistan’s power sector no longer faces simply a shortage of electricity. It now faces a more difficult question: how to get greater value from the generation capacity it already has. A significant part of that capacity remains under-utilized, while consumers continue to bear high electricity costs and the country still considers additional generation investments. What Pakistan needs now is a clear assessment of how much capacity is actually required, what is preventing existing capacity from being fully utilized and where the real bottlenecks lie. Paying for Capacity,…

For Pakistan, the real test is what this investment delivers Pakistan is preparing for one of the largest investments in its oil-refining sector, with the planned modernization of five existing refineries expected to attract more than $6 billion. This is an important opportunity, but the real question is not how much investment the programme attracts. It is what Pakistan gets in return. The government must ensure that this investment translates into higher domestic production of petrol and diesel, lower furnace oil output, reduced dependence on imported refined products, better refinery efficiency and measurable savings in foreign exchange. The five refineries…

Pakistan spent decades trying to solve an electricity shortage. The next economic challenge is different: How do we ensure that the electricity we produce translates into factories, exports, investment and jobs? Pakistan’s energy debate has entered a new phase. For years, the focus was on overcoming load shedding and expanding generation capacity. Significant investments were made in the power sector, and the country moved away from the era of severe electricity shortages. However, energy policy cannot be measured only by megawatts added. The real economic value of electricity comes when it supports productive activity i.e. when factories expand, exports grow,…