China gains oil market influence
Six months into the Iran war, the world’s most powerful oil alliance, OPEC+, finds itself in an unfamiliar position: unable to influence a market it once helped shape. The war, which has shut a major export route for Middle Eastern oil and damaged energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries, has eroded the group’s market share and, with it, its ability to affect prices. Its statements and policy decisions barely move oil markets anymore. Instead, cuts in Chinese crude imports have emerged as one of the dominant themes of 2026, helping to balance oil markets amid what analysts describe as the worst-ever supply disruption. OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia — accounted for about 40 percent of global oil output in July, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data. That’s down from more than 48 percent before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February, although about four to five percentage points of the decline were due to the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC in May. OPEC+’s core group of seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, accounted for only a quarter of world oil output in July.
US natgas output to hit record high in 2026
U.S. natural gas output will rise to a record high in 2026, while demand will decline, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its short-term energy outlook on Tuesday. EIA projected dry gas production will rise from a record 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 to 109.5 bcfd in 2026 and 112.3 bcfd in 2027. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption will fall from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 91.4 bcfd in 2026 before rising to 92.1 bcfd in 2027. The March projections for 2026 were lower than EIA’s forecasts in February of 110.0 bcfd for production and 91.6 bcfd for demand. The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would rise from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 16.7 bcfd in 2026 and 18.1 bcfd in 2027. With power generators expected to burn less coal this year, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would drop from a two-year high of 533.0 million short tons in 2025 to 513.9 million tons in 2026 and 498.0 million tons in 2027, the lowest since 1963. EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would decline from a three-year high of 4.904 billion metric tons in 2025 to 4.820 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil, coal and gas use decreases, and 4.816 billion metric tons in 2027 as coal use declines.
Kazakhstan’s uranium dilemma puts Azerbaijan at center
With Europe rushing ahead in developing nuclear energy and Western utility companies seeking to reduce their reliance on Russia’s infrastructure, the international nuclear fuel market has reached a crucial point. Right at the heart of it all stands Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer, accounting for more than 40 percent of global uranium production. Having large amounts of raw material is just half the story; the second half involves getting it to the Western countries without going through Russia. This is where the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) serves as a vital strategic bridge.
When strategy prescriptions backfire
Pakistan is once again facing a wheat crisis. Despite official claims of a satisfactory wheat harvest in 2026, flour prices continue to rise, provincial governments have raised concerns about meeting supply needs, and flour millers are urging the federal government to permit wheat imports. The government is now moving towards imports to bridge the anticipated gap between domestic supply and demand. At first glance, imports appear to be a practical solution. In reality, they expose the deep contradictions of Pakistan’s food policy. The obvious question is: How can a country that produced a reasonable wheat crop find itself discussing imports only months after harvest? The answer lies not in production but in policy. The crisis is rooted in the FY26 wheat procurement crisis, when the federal government sharply reduced public procurement, arguing that private markets would purchase wheat more efficiently. Farmers, already burdened by soaring costs of fertiliser, diesel, electricity, irrigation, pesticides and labour, were forced to sell their wheat soon after harvest, often at prices they considered below production costs. Without effective public procurement or adequate storage facilities, they had little bargaining power.
Crude steel production in July 2026
World crude steel production for the 70 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 149.2 million tons (Mt) in July 2026, a 0.3 percent decrease compared to July 2025. Africa produced 2.0 Mt in July 2026, up 6.1 percent on July 2025. Asia and Oceania produced 109.4 Mt, down 1.2 percent. The EU (27) produced 10.5 Mt, up 3.8 percent. Europe, Other produced 3.7 Mt, up 5.8 percent. The Middle East produced 3.8 Mt, down 13.4 percent. North America produced 9.6 Mt, up 4.9 percent. Russia & other CIS + Ukraine produced 6.7 Mt, up 2.2 percent. South America produced 3.6 Mt, up 2.8 percent.
| Crude Steel Production By Region | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Details | Jul 2026(Mt) | percent change Jul 26/25 | Jan-Jul 2026(Mt) | percent change Jan-Jul 26/25 |
| Africa | 2.0 | 6.1 | 14.6 | 9.5 |
| Asia and Oceania | 109.4 | -1.2 | 799.6 | -0.9 |
| EU (27) | 10.5 | 3.8 | 76.0 | 0.4 |
| Europe, Other | 3.7 | 5.8 | 25.7 | 5.5 |
| Middle East | 3.8 | -13.4 | 29.6 | -8.1 |
| North America | 9.6 | 4.9 | 65.9 | 5.4 |
| Russia & other CIS + Ukraine | 6.7 | 2.2 | 45.5 | -6.0 |
| South America | 3.6 | 2.8 | 24.1 | 0.0 |
| Total 70 countries | 149.2 | -0.3 | 1,081.2 | -0.6 |