Why the future of Pakistan’s food system depends on water efficiency, technology, resilient farming and integration of the water-energy-food nexus
Agriculture is foundation of the country’s food security, a major source of employment and rural livelihoods, a supplier of raw materials to industry, and an important contributor to exports. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, agriculture accounts for 23.4 percent of national GDP and 33.1 percent of employment. During 2025-26, the sector recorded growth of 2.89 percent, compared with 1.53 percent in the previous year.
The fundamental question for this sector is Can Pakistan continue to increase agricultural production while facing growing water scarcity, climate variability, rising input costs and increasing food demand? The answer requires a transition from conventional agricultural development towards climate-smart, resource-efficient and integrated food systems.
A resilient but increasingly vulnerable agricultural system
The performance of agriculture during 2025-26 demonstrates both resilience and vulnerability. The crop sub-sector grew by 1.44 percent, recovering from a contraction of 1.01 percent in 2024-25. Important crops collectively grew by 0.65 percent. Sugarcane production increased by 6.2 percent to 89.45 million tonnes, wheat by 4.3 percent to 29.61 million tonnes, and rice by 2.8 percent to 9.99 million tonnes. At the same time, maize production declined by 2.7 percent and cotton by 0.5 percent.
The contrasting performance of different crops is important. It demonstrates that agricultural growth cannot simply be measured through expansion of cultivated area. Productivity, crop choice, water availability, input efficiency and climate resilience are becoming equally important.
Wheat provides a useful example. Its cultivated area increased by 4.4 percent to 9.48 million hectares and production reached 29.61 million tonnes. Improved availability of certified seed, fertilizer and irrigation water contributed to the increase. Rice, meanwhile, achieved higher production despite a 3.6 percent reduction in cultivated area because yield improved by 6.6 percent. This is precisely the direction Pakistan needs to pursue: producing more from fewer resources rather than simply expanding resource consumption.
The water question cannot be separated from food security
Pakistan has one of the world’s largest contiguous irrigation systems, but the country’s agricultural future is increasingly constrained by water availability. The Economic Survey reports that per-capita annual water availability has fallen below 1,000 cubic metres. The pressures include limited storage, conveyance losses, groundwater depletion, climate change, population growth, pollution, waterlogging and salinity. During 2025-26, surface-water availability was 92.0 million acre-feet (MAF), compared with the long-term average system usage of 103.5 MAF. Kharif availability stood at 60.6 MAF and Rabi availability at 31.4 MAF.
Climate variability makes this challenge more complex. During the 2025 monsoon, rainfall was 22.6 percent above normal, while post-monsoon and winter rainfall remained below normal. Such fluctuations demonstrate why agricultural planning based on historical weather patterns alone is becoming increasingly risky.
Recent know-how about the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus emphasizes that water, energy and food cannot be managed independently. Water is required to produce food; energy is required to pump, transport, process and store water and agricultural products; while food production itself generates demand for energy and other resources. A policy that improves one component while damaging another may ultimately create new vulnerabilities. The WEF nexus approach therefore calls for looking at the entire system rather than individual sectors in isolation.
Climate-smart agriculture: the pathway forward
Climate-Smart Agriculture offers a practical framework for addressing this challenge. Its objective is not simply to increase production, but to develop agricultural systems capable of maintaining productivity, adapting to climate change and, where possible, reducing environmental pressures. For Pakistan, climate-smart agriculture should include:
- efficient irrigation and improved water management;
- drought-, heat- and flood-tolerant crop varieties;
- precision application of fertilizer and water;
- conservation agriculture and improved soil management;
- integrated pest management;
- improved livestock breeds and feeding systems;
- better manure management;
- renewable energy for agricultural operations;
- agroforestry and ecosystem restoration;
- efficient storage, cold chains and food processing; and
- digital technologies for weather, markets, finance and farm management.
The integration of food and energy production can also generate important synergies. Agricultural residues, livestock waste and food-processing by-products can become sources of biogas, bioenergy, organic fertilizer and other value-added products, reducing waste while creating additional income opportunities. Your book chapter specifically highlights integrated crop-livestock-biogas systems, agroforestry, renewable energy and recovery of energy and nutrients from agricultural residues as components of a more sustainable nexus approach.
Livestock: an agricultural growth engine
Pakistan’s agricultural transformation must extend beyond crops. The livestock sector grew by 3.75 percent in 2025-26, with its gross value addition increasing from Rs 6,004 billion to Rs 6,229 billion. It accounted for 62.4 percent of agricultural value addition and 14.6 percent of GDP. More than eight million rural families are involved in livestock production.
The sector also offers an important opportunity for export diversification. Pakistan’s meat exports exceeded US$500 million in FY2025, while the country’s share of global meat exports remains below one percent. The government’s transformation strategy focuses on disease control, traceability, improved genetics, commercial feedlots, cold-chain infrastructure and value-added meat exports.
This is where climate-smart thinking again becomes important. Better animal nutrition, improved breeds, efficient manure management and modern husbandry can simultaneously improve productivity, rural incomes and environmental performance.
Food security also means reducing import dependence
One particularly important challenge is edible oil. During July-March FY2026, Pakistan imported 3.65 million tonnes of edible oil, while the import bill for edible oil and oilseeds stood at US$3.21 billion and US$1.34 billion respectively. Domestic production is expected to meet only around 10 percent of total edible-oil requirements. The full-year import bill is estimated at around US$6 billion. This represents both a food-security challenge and an opportunity.
Expansion of suitable oilseed crops, improved varieties, better agronomic practices and appropriate market incentives can gradually reduce import dependence. The Pakistan Oilseed Department has proposed a phased roadmap to increase self-sufficiency to 27 percent in the short term, 40 percent in the medium term and 70 percent over the long term.
Finance and technology must reach the farmer
Agricultural transformation will not succeed without affordable finance. During July-March FY2026, financial institutions disbursed Rs2,161.6 billion in agricultural credit, 15 percent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year. The outstanding agricultural loan portfolio reached Rs1,166.3 billion by March 2026.
Digital finance offers another opportunity. The Zarkhez-e initiative is designed to improve small farmers’ access to formal credit through digital applications, automated validation and institutional risk sharing. The Risk Coverage Scheme for Small Farmers and Underserved Areas is expected to facilitate Rs100 billion annually in disbursements and add 250,000 new borrowers each year during FY2026-FY2028.
The next step should be to connect finance with climate-smart investment. Credit should increasingly support efficient irrigation, solar-powered pumping, farm mechanization, improved seed, precision agriculture, livestock improvement, cold storage and post-harvest technologies.
From production to a complete food system
Pakistan’s food challenge is not only about producing enough crops. It also involves storage, transportation, processing, nutrition, affordability, markets and food waste. This is an important lesson from the WEF nexus approach. Food systems must be considered across production, processing, trade, consumption, health, livelihoods, employment, waste and environmental sustainability. Your book chapter emphasizes the need for integrated approaches and better data and computational modelling to understand interactions and trade-offs between water, energy and food.
Pakistan therefore needs a national agricultural information architecture in which weather, groundwater, irrigation, crop production, fertilizer use, farm credit, livestock, markets and food prices can be analysed together. Modern tools such as remote sensing, GIS, artificial intelligence and predictive modelling can help farmers and policymakers anticipate droughts, floods, crop stress and changing production patterns.
A new agricultural compact
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 concludes that the outlook for 2026-27 depends on timely availability of quality seed, fertilizer, irrigation water, farm mechanization, affordable agricultural credit and favourable weather. It also identifies digital financing, efficient water use, edible-oil import substitution, livestock productivity and market-oriented reforms as important areas for future progress. These priorities can be brought together through one overarching concept- climate-smart agricultural transformation based on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus.
Pakistan does not have the luxury of treating water, agriculture, energy, environment and food security as separate policy domains. Every drop of water saved through efficient irrigation can contribute to food security. Every unit of renewable energy used for irrigation or cold storage can reduce dependence on conventional energy. Every tonne of agricultural residue converted into useful energy or organic fertilizer can create value while reducing waste.
The objective, therefore, should not merely be more agriculture, but smarter agriculture—agriculture that produces more food with less water, uses energy more efficiently, generates higher rural incomes, withstands climate shocks and creates opportunities for value addition and exports. Pakistan’s agricultural future will ultimately depend on its ability to make this transition—from a resource-intensive production model to an integrated, technology-enabled, climate-resilient and economically sustainable food system.
The author is a Professor at Dawood University of Engineering and Technology (DUET), Karachi, and Advisor to the Vice Chancellor. He holds a PhD in Chemical Engineering and has over 25 years of academic and research experience in energy, renewable energy, biomass conversion, and sustainable development. He is also a Member of the Central Committee on Bioeconomy, Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), and has published extensively in national and international journals.