Interview with Syed Imran Ahmed, Business and Energy sector analyst
PAGE: Tell me about yourself, please:
Syed Imran Ahmed: I have more than 20 years’ of work experience in the areas of marketing, marketing research, media and marketing communications in leading local and international companies. Currently, I am the Head of Media, Advertising, Publications and Events in SSGC, in charge of campaigns, events, content development and digital media. An MBA from IBA and Masters in International Trade and Business from University of Melbourne, I have taught a number of courses as an adjunct faculty in leading business schools in Karachi. I am also a frequent contributor in leading dailies and magazines including Pakistan and Gulf Economist as a business and energy analyst.
PAGE: What is your perspective about oil prices (petroleum prices) in Pakistan after the peace agreement between Iran and the USA?
Syed Imran Ahmed: Pakistan has played a pivotal role in brokering a framework peace agreement between the US and Iran over a conflict that started in March 2026. The unprecedented initiative Pakistan took to strike this historic deal immediately eased global crude supply concerns and drove international Brent crude prices below $80 a barrel. Subsequently, the fall in oil prices that is gradually leading towards global supply stabilization also encouraged the Government of Pakistan to announce major cuts in domestic fuel prices which it had to hike when the conflict started in March 2026. Cut in fuel prices should provide significant relief to the public, who were quite distressed by the near record highs when the situation in the Gulf exacerbated. It is also expected that lower transportation and production costs will alleviate inflationary pressures on domestic, commercial and industrial sectors including manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
While consumers will benefit from the drop in global crude oil prices, the government will continue to manage its fiscal needs. We have seen that the petroleum levy on diesel was increased to offset the reduction on petrol, in keeping with the revenue and bailout commitments made to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Significantly, the outcome of the pivotal diplomatic role Pakistan has played to bring about lasting peace in Gulf has already started paying off, with the country’s weekly oil import bill returning from a massive $900 million at the height of the conflict to normal levels now.
PAGE: How would you comment on the energy policy of Pakistan?
Syed Imran Ahmed: Pakistan has for long been dependent on conventional fuel mix with natural gas taking up around 30% of the energy mix. As resources continue to decline, it has become indispensable to implement an energy policy that focuses on achieving affordability, energy security, and sustainability through a major shift towards renewable energy and energy conservation measures. Driven by the need to reduce imported fuel costs, the government is transitioning the power sector toward indigenous resources, integrating electric vehicles and improving net-metering structures.
Key initiatives of the current energy strategy include that aims to increase the share of renewable energy including solar, wind, and hydro in the national generation capacity to 30% by 2030.
In addition, for managing grid capacity and excess generation, solar policy has shifted in many areas from traditional net-metering to net-billing. Also, the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policy 2023 focuses on reducing national energy intensity by implementing strict conservation guidelines across industrial, agricultural, and building sectors. And the New Energy Vehicles Policy 2025-30 targets a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and aims to utilize surplus electricity generation capacity by pushing for electric mobility.
PAGE: Where do you see Pakistan in terms of using alternative energy resources?
Syed Imran Ahmed: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again highlighted Pakistan’s continued reliance on imported energy and inevitable exposure to global price volatility. Over the past decade, Pakistan has significantly diversified its energy mix by expanding into solar, wind and hydropower capacity, thereby reducing its reliance on imported fuels. The pace of this diversification has more or less been slow except for solar energy where Pakistan is experiencing an unprecedented, market-driven solar energy boom, with total installed capacity surging past 30 GW. Spurred on by a massive increase in grid electricity tariffs and plummeting costs of imported Chinese panels, solar now frequently surpasses national grid supply during peak daylight hours.
For other sources to reach out to a large population, this effort can be further reinforced by adopting new technologies. To ensure long-term energy security, future-oriented planning must also consider emerging technologies that are re-shaping global energy markets.
Declining gas reserves mean that Pakistan will need to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels. This means shifting towards alternative energy, focusing primarily on solar and wind power to key localized resources include Thar coal reserves and vast hydropower potential in northern mountainous regions, as well as significant but developing rare earth metals and mineral extraction in Balochistan.
PAGE: What is your standpoint regarding energy prices in Pakistan for industrial consumers after the presentation of Federal Budget for the next fiscal?
Syed Imran Ahmed: In Federal Budget 2026-27, the Government of Pakistan has implemented structural energy adjustments aimed at deficit management under IMF guidelines, resulting in a 19% reduction in power subsidies to Rs. 830 billion, alongside targeted short-term relief measures for consumers.
The primary energy-related pricing updates, allocations, and revenue targets includes slashing of further Total power sector subsidies to Rs. 830 billion. The IMF has continuously prevailed on the Government to eliminate broad power subsidies to manage the circular debt crisis.
The Senate has formally pushed to restrict subsidies strictly to low-consumption domestic consumers while seeking the removal of fixed charges and GST from lower-income power bills. Also, the federal development program has earmarked Rs. 1,162 billion for the power sector to boost infrastructure.
As far as petroleum levy is concerned, the collection target for the petroleum levy was raised heavily to Rs1.727 trillion (up from Rs1.468 trillion), meaning structural fuel taxes remain high to fulfill international loan agreements. Moreover, a new gas surcharge revenue target of Rs151 billion has been established as a distinct budgetary line item. Pakistani business leaders and investors said that the tax relief measures announced in the Federal Budget 2026-27 could help the government achieve its 4% economic growth target and significantly boost the country’s exports, given that energy prices become competitive.
Business leaders have welcomed the tax incentives, including reductions in transaction taxes to support housing and construction, and measures aimed at boosting agricultural productivity.