2026: Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth
International experts forecast that global crude oil production will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast in our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global crude oil production growth since 2023 has been driven by countries outside of OPEC+. In 2024, non-OPEC+ production increased by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d); however, coordinated production cuts by OPEC+ producers offset production increases by countries outside the group, and global crude oil production fell by 0.2 million b/d. Global crude oil production rebounded in 2025, growing by an estimated 2.2 million b/d overall, with 1.7 million b/d of growth from non-OPEC+ countries. In our December STEO, experts forecast that crude oil production growth from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina was 28 percent of the global total in 2025.
Brazil: Crude oil production in Brazil grew significantly in 2025 because of the start-up of new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels around offshore deepwater oil resources, including the start-up of Equinor’s Bacalhau field in October, which is the first project in Brazil to be managed by an international operator. This project and an FPSO brought online in February of this year have helped crude oil production increase, with official government data showing that monthly production topped 4.0 million b/d for the first time in October 2025. After remaining largely flat in 2024, Brazil’s crude oil production is forecast to increase by 0.4 million b/d to 3.8 million b/d in 2025. The scheduled start-up of two additional FPSOs in the Petrobras-operated Buzios field in December 2025 and in mid-2026 are expected to help drive crude oil production higher by 0.2 million b/d to 4.0 million b/d on average in 2026.
Guyana: Crude oil production in Guyana increased by an estimated ten-fold from 2020 to 2025, when experts estimate it averaged 750,000 b/d. This increased oil production has all centered around oil discoveries within the offshore Stabroek block, with companies utilizing FPSO vessels like those used in Brazil. Production in Guyana is managed by ExxonMobil, along with partners Hess and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Like in Brazil, additional production vessels are currently in development in Guyana and are expected to boost production in 2026. Recent reports indicate that Exxon’s Yellowtail project has reached full production capacity, helping to drive production levels in Guyana to more than 900,000 b/d on average in November. After initially shipping crude oil primarily to countries in the Americas and Europe, Guyana is increasingly exporting oil to markets in Asia to meet demand previously served by other exporting countries. The start-up of the Uaru project in 2026 is expected to add an additional 250,000 b/d of supply, helping push crude oil production past 1.0 million b/d by 2027. International experts also forecast that crude oil production growth in Guyana averaged 130,000 b/d in 2025 and will average 140,000 b/d in 2026.
Argentina: Prior to 2021, crude oil production in Argentina was generally declining. However, production has since increased due to the development of the Vaca Muerta shale formation in western Argentina. The Vaca Muerta is one of the only unconventional oil resources using hydraulic fracturing methods currently producing significant volumes of crude oil outside of the United States. The growth from the Vaca Muerta has helped Argentina become the fourth-largest oil producing country in South America behind Brazil, Venezuela, and Guyana according to our estimates for the second half of 2025. Oil production in Argentina averaged 670,000 b/d in 2024 and is expected to grow to 740,000 b/d in 2025, with production from the Vaca Muerta accounting for an estimated 62 percent of the total between January and October 2025. Continued growth from the Vaca Muerta is expected to drive Argentina’s crude oil production to an average of 810,000 b/d in 2026.
Worldwide race for natural resources is intensifying
Natural resources have long been central to global politics, including influencing geopolitical alliances. However, the competition for such resources is intensifying because of factors including climate change, the energy transition, and growing geoeconomic rivalry. In recent years, Europe has perhaps been the continent most caught out by these trends. The Ukraine war triggered a severe energy shock which showcased the heavy overdependence of the continent on Russian resources. Subsequent actions by the EU have shown that there is a determination that this cannot be allowed to happen again. In response, the EU has released an ambitious plan to try to end Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas no later than Nov. 1, 2027, with amendments to existing contracts strictly limited to operational matters. The European Commission will also table a legal proposal in early 2026 to ban Russian oil imports by the end of 2027. The goal of eliminating dependence on Russian energy, in these ways, will rest heavily on Europe’s political will, and this is being fortified with several legislative proposals. The 27 EU member states are also now required to submit national Russian energy phase-out plans encompassing gas, oil, and nuclear. On the gas front, there is an EU ban on new contracts with an end to spot market contracts for Russian gas. For the oil sector, steps include an intensified attempt to tackle Russia’s heavily sanctioned, so-called shadow fleet smuggling oil. On the nuclear front, measures include restrictions on imports of uranium, enriched uranium, and other nuclear materials; a ban on new Euratom co-signed supply contracts with Russian entities; and launch of European Radioisotopes Valley to secure medical isotope supply. Monitoring and enforcement have also been stepped up.