- Pakistan can support growth and meet obligations through fiscal prudence, macro stability, and pro-growth policies
According to the latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan’s scheduled external debt repayments for the next 12 months stand at $31.69 billion, on the maturity profile of external debt obligations as of October 2025. Experts recorded that the Pakistan’s economy enlarged by 3.0 percent in FY2025, but cautioned that growth is probable to remain the same in the next fiscal year because of the impacts of the recent floods.
| Pakistan: Gross External Debt and Liabilities Position (Million US$) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross External Debt and Liabilities Position | 30-Sep-24(R) | 31-Dec-24(R) | 31-Mar-25(R) | 30-Jun-25(R) | 30-Sep-25(P) |
| General government | 83,738 | 82,165 | 83,008 | 86,310 | 86,063 |
| Monetary authorities | 16,881 | 16,166 | 16,222 | 17,440 | 17,388 |
| Banks | 7,077 | 7,203 | 5,668 | 6,215 | 6,272 |
| Others sector | 20,074 | 19,506 | 19,521 | 19,244 | 19,102 |
| Direct investment: Intercompany lending | 6,014 | 5,733 | 5,679 | 5,702 | 5,656 |
| Gross External Debt and Liabilities | 133,785 | 130,773 | 130,097 | 134,911 | 134,482 |
| Source: SBP | |||||
In October 2025, the experts had cut its growth forecast for Pakistan by half a percent to 2.6 percent for the current fiscal year because of the recent floods, which are also expected to push up inflation to 7.2 percent. It had said that for FY2025-26, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was projected to remain around 2.6 percent, as ongoing catastrophic floods had damped the forecast. It projected a 3.1 percent growth rate for Pakistan in its previous biannual outlook in April 2025. Pakistan has set 4.2 percent growth target and has since been looking at 3.5 percent as part of its engagements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
No doubt, SBP’s data on predetermined short-term net drains on foreign currency assets reveals that Pakistan faces significant external account pressure, with scheduled outflows surpassing the total official reserve assets. The immediate obligation standing due within one month is registered at $1.86 billion. This financial pressure intensifies significantly in the near term, with repayments rising to $8.73 billion within the one-to-three-month window. It is said that the heaviest load, however, is concentrated in the three-to-twelve-month period, where obligations accumulate to a substantial $21.10 billion.
Crucially, the composition of this debt shows that $28.13 billion of the total amount represents principal repayments, while $3.56 billion is owed in interest payments. In terms of liquidity available to meet these obligations, the SBP’s total official reserve assets reached at $24.03 billion as of October 31, 2025. This reserve buffer is composed of $8.72 billion in foreign currency reserves, $8.35 billion in gold reserves, and $6.81 billion classified as other reserve assets. Within the foreign currency assets, experts also recorded in the statement that the specific IMF-related figures: the reserves include $140.89 million in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and an IMF reserve position of $0.16 million. Moreover, SBP holds $3.35 billion in deposits with other national central banks, the BIS, and the IMF. An additional $6.81 billion is classified as other reserve assets.
As per the SBP officials the aggregate short and long positions in forwards and futures in foreign currencies, explaining a net short position of $2.08 billion. However, on the other side of the ledger, the central bank holds long positions totaling $290 million. The SBP breaking this down further, has long positions worth $151 million maturing within one month and another $139 million in the one-to-three-month bracket, offering a minor offset against the larger volume of short positions. Despite facing considerable domestic and external challenges, Pakistan’s economy has maintained a path of gradual stabilization during FY 2025. This improvement has been supported by disciplined macroeconomic management, improved fiscal and external balances, and the success in price stability. These developments have facilitated a downward adjustment in the policy rate, improving liquidity conditions and supporting private sector credit uptake. Real GDP growth is projected to grow at potential in FY 2026, assuming continued stable macroeconomic environment, easing inflation, and pro-growth policy interventions. The URAAN Pakistan (National Economic Transformation Plan) strategy prioritizes fiscal prudence, external sector stability, and targeted support for key productive sectors.