- October 2025 CPI remained 5-6pc despite flood-related disruptions and pressure on essential commodities
Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent. The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions in other major economies. Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.5 percent in 2026, converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging market and developing economies. Furthermore, the World Bank stated that flood-related shock to food supply is expected to push inflation above earlier projections, peaking at 7.2 percent in the fiscal year 2026 before easing to 6.8 percent in fiscal year 2027 as food supply constraints, commodity and energy prices decline, and the exchange rate remains market-determined.
| Inflation in Pakistan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Average July – September % Changes | September over September % Changes | ||||
| 2025-2026 | 2024-2025 | 2023-2024 | 2025-2026 | 2024-2025 | 2023-2024 | |
| CPI (National) | 4.22 | 9.19 | 29.04 | 5.61 | 6.93 | 31.44 |
| CPI (Urban) | 4.43 | 11.37 | 26.98 | 5.49 | 9.29 | 29.74 |
| CPI (Rural) | 3.91 | 6.14 | 32.02 | 5.78 | 3.65 | 33.88 |
| SPI | 2.07 | 11.87 | 29.75 | 4.47 | 9.21 | 32.00 |
| WPI | -0.30 | 6.10 | 24.61 | 0.59 | 1.95 | 26.39 |
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) statistics, the Pakistan’s inflation was recorded 6.2 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in October 2025. The consumer price index (CPI) was registered at 5.6 percent in September 2025. The CPI reached at 6.9 percent in October 2024. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, it grew by 1.8 percent in October 2025 as against to a rise of 2.0 percent in the previous month and a rise of 1.2 percent in October 2024. CPI inflation (Urban) grew by 6 percent on a YoY basis in October 2025, as against to 5.5 percent in the previous month and 9.3 percent in October 2024. On a MoM basis, it remained stable at 1.5 percent both in October 2025 and the previous month, compared to a rise of 1.1 percent in October 2024. CPI inflation (Rural) grew by 6.6 percent on a YoY basis in October 2025 as against to a rise of 5.8 percent in the previous month and 4.2 percent in October 2024. On a MoM basis, it increased by 2.3 percent in October 2025 as against to an increase of 2.8 percent in the previous month and an increase of 1.5 percent in October 2024.
The government experts said the CPI inflation reading was expected to remain contained within the target in the current fiscal year 2025-26.
It is recorded that the flood-related supply disruptions and temporary border closures have put upward pressure on prices of a few essential commodities. Inflation is expected to remain 5-6 percent in October 2025.
It is also important to note that the government of Pakistan experienced severe flooding as part of an extended monsoon season that began in late June 2025 and intensified through September. The disaster has mainly affected densely populated regions, especially in Punjab.