China’s economy withstands pressure, maintains stable growth in April
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economy is showing stable growth despite external pressures. Wang Siwen has more on the Bureau’s latest report on national economic performance.
China’s economy withstood pressure and maintained stable growth in April.
FU LINGHUI Spokesperson National Bureau of Statistics “The national economy maintained stable growth despite pressure, sustaining the new and positive development momentum.”
The Index of Services Production increased by 6.0 percent, and retail sales of consumer goods climbed 5.1 percent year on year, reflecting a continued recovery in domestic demand.
China’s CPI fell 0.1 percent year on year, but edged up 0.1 percent from March, showing stable prices overall.
Fueled by strong holiday demand, travel, tourism, transport, and communications posted robust gains. From January to April, these sectors recorded double-digit growth. Online retail sales also continued to gain momentum.
During the May Day holiday, tourist numbers surged 6.4 percent, highlighting rising consumer confidence. And, China’s foreign trade showed strong resilience.
FU LINGHUI Spokesperson National Bureau of Statistics “Looking at the key features of our foreign trade, one highlight is the accelerated growth in trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries. Although trade with the U.S. declined in April, diversified trade partnerships have played a vital role in supporting the steady growth of China’s foreign trade.”
Trade with Belt and Road countries grew 3.9 percent, with ASEAN remaining a key driver. The reduction in China-U.S. tariffs could boost bilateral trade and aid global economic growth.
Looking ahead, while the global outlook remains complex, China’s economic fundamentals remain sound. The country will continue to advance high-quality development, safeguard employment, and pursue high-standard opening-up to ensure steady recovery and long-term growth.
Indian Economy Growth Rate & Statistics
Strong economic growth in the first quarter of FY23 helped India overcome the UK to become the fifth-largest economy after it recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Nominal GDP for FY25 is estimated at Rs. 33.10 lakh crore (US$ 3.8 trillion) with growth rate of 9.9 percent, compared to Rs. 30.12 lakh crore (US$ 3.5 trillion) in FY24. Strong domestic demand for consumption and investment, along with Government’s continued emphasis on capital expenditure are seen as among the key driver of the GDP in the second half of FY25. In FY25, India’s exports stood at Rs. 37.31 lakh crore (US$ 433.56 billion), with Engineering Goods (26.88 percent), Petroleum Products (13.86 percent) and electronic goods (8.89 percent) being the top three exported commodity. Rising employment and increasing private consumption, supported by rising consumer sentiment, will support GDP growth in the coming months.
Future capital spending of the government in the economy is expected to be supported by factors such as tax buoyancy, the streamlined tax system with low rates, a thorough assessment and rationalisation of the tariff structure, and the digitization of tax filing.
In the medium run, increased capital spending on infrastructure and asset-building projects is set to increase growth multipliers. The contact-based services sector has demonstrated promise to boost growth by unleashing the pent-up demand. The sector’s success is being captured by a number of HFIs (High-Frequency Indicators) that are performing well, indicating the beginnings of a comeback.
India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years, backed by its robust democracy and strong partnerships.
India’s appeal as a destination for investments has grown stronger and more sustainable because of the current period of global unpredictability and volatility, and the record amounts of money raised by India-focused funds in 2022 are evidence of investor faith in the “Invest in India” narrative.
Japan’s economy shrinks
Japan’s economy contracted at a higher pace than expected in the first quarter of 2025, according to official data for the January to March period released on Friday.
Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, the first quarterly drop since the January-March period in 2024.
However, compared with the same quarter in the previous year, Japan’s economy shrank by 0.7 percent — much steeper than the forecast 0.2 percent contraction
The decline was largely due to a fall in exports, which drive the Japanese economy. Data shows demand for exports was waning even before US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs.
On April 2, the US imposed a 24 percent tariff on Japanese goods. It also imposed an additional 25 percent levy on cars. The US is the largest market for Japan’s auto industry.
After a reprieve, the tariffs are due to take effect in July, unless Japan can negotiate a deal.
“Uncertainty is greatly heightened by the Trump tariffs, and it is likely that the economic slowdown trend will become clearer from (the second quarter) onward,” BNP Paribas chief economist Ryutaro Kono told AFP news agency.
Tokyo has been trying to negotiate a trade deal with the US, but policymakers have acknowledged its has been difficult to plan a response as Trump keeps changing his mind.
Japan’s economy has been vulnerable for quite some time now, as an aging population balloons welfare spending but limits labor and demand.
The Japanese central bank had long maintained a policy of negative interest rates to boost the economy but began to gradually hike rates last year.
Japan’s economy “lacks a driver of growth given weakness in exports and consumption. It’s very vulnerable to shocks such as one from Trump tariffs,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, told Reuters news agency.
“The data may lead to growing calls for bigger fiscal spending,” he said, adding that “the possibility of the economy entering a recession cannot be ruled out, depending on the degree of downward pressure caused by the tariff issue.”
Indonesia Says Economic Growth Could Pick up Next Year
Indonesia’s government sees economic growth reaching at least 5.2 percent next year as it continues to focus on improving food production, energy security and people’s wellbeing, its finance minister told parliament on Tuesday.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said economic growth in 2026 would be between 5.2 percent and 5.8 percent next year with the bottom end of the range the same as 2025’s growth target.
“We will reach the target in 2026 by maintaining people’s purchasing power… development of natural resources downstream industry and improving the investment climate, as well as human resources,” Sri Mulyani said as she outlined the basis of the government’s 2026 budget.
Still, some analysts were sceptical about the target growth range, saying the focus on welfare was unlikely to boost the economy.
“Still the same old story,” Jahen Rezki, an analyst from the University of Indonesia, told Reuters. “Minimal or no economic policies we see so far that support development … We need a lot of investment/financial deepening to be able to grow higher.”
Spending for health and education in 2026 could be increased by as much as 4 percent and 5 percent year-on-year, respectively, Sri Mulyani said, as the government pushes ahead with President Prabowo Subianto’s flagship programme of free meals for 83 million students and pregnant women, as well as to build hundreds of schools for poorer communities.
The 2026 budget will also focus on improving the defence sector by modernising military hardware and increasing the size of the reserve forces, Sri Mulyani told parliament.
Reiterating the government was committed to prudent spending, Sri Mulyani said the deficit would be between 2.48 percent and 2.53 percent of GDP, compared with this year’s target of 2.53 percent.
Jakarta also assumed a weaker rupiah next year – up to 16,900 a dollar – as a consequence of the ongoing global market uncertainties from U.S. tariffs.
The budget will be the first by Prabowo, who wants to lift growth to 8 percent by 2029, since he took office in October. Indonesia usually formalises its spending plans by the end of the third quarter.
In Q1 Malaysia’s economy grows 4.4pc
Malaysia’s economy grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, below market expectations but in line with government estimates, data showed on Friday.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast annual gross domestic product growth would come in at 4.5 percent in the January to March period.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted-basis, first quarter GDP expanded 0.7 percent vs a 0.2 percent contraction in the previous quarter.
The economy grew a revised 4.9 percent in the final quarter of 2024.
The central bank said first quarter economic growth was driven by sustained household spending growth amid positive labour market conditions and policy support, as well as steady expansion in investments, and continued export growth.
“Growth was affected by lower oil and gas production, and normalisation in motor vehicle sales and production,” Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said at a press conference.
Growth in 2025 is expected to be slightly lower than the 4.5 to 5.5 percent forecast range, Abdul Rasheed said, adding a new estimate would be announced in the next month or two.
“The balance of risk to the growth outlook is currently tilted to the downside,” Abdul Rasheed added.
Last month, the central bank said it will have to lower this year’s forecast economic growth range of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent due to the global trade war.
Malaysia’s exports impacted more by global economy than FX moves, minister says
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said earlier this month that the suspension of most of the US tariffs until July meant the economic impact was manageable for now, but Malaysia was unlikely to meet its growth forecast this year.
Malaysia is facing a 24 percent tariff rate on its exports to the US from July, unless it is able to negotiate a reduction of the levy.
Thailand’s economic growth softens to 3.1 pct in Q1
Thailand’s economy expanded 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, driven by public investment and exports despite slowing private and government consumption, official data showed on Monday.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the January-March period softened from an upwardly revised 3.3 percent growth in the previous three months, which was the strongest increase since the third quarter of 2022, according to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).
On a quarterly basis, the GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in the first quarter of this year, quickening from a 0.4 percent rise in the final quarter of 2024, registering the fifth consecutive period of expansion, the NESDC said in a statement.
The Southeast Asian nation’s economy is expected to grow in a range of 1.3 percent to 2.3 percent this year, down from 2.3 percent to 3.3 percent forecast earlier, said NESDC secretary-general Danucha Pichayanan.
Looking ahead, the expansion is bolstered by rising public investment, an ongoing increase in private consumption amid low unemployment and inflation rates, along with the recovery of the tourism sector and related services, Danucha told a news conference.
However, economic growth is projected to slow in the second half of the year due to a global economic and trade slowdown and the impact of trade protection measures, as well as additional downside risks from agricultural volatility, he noted.
Last year, the Thai economy grew 2.5 percent, accelerating from 2 percent in 2023 but below the government target of 2.7 percent.