Into the world, resilient Chinese economy injects certainty amid rising protectionism
Despite headwinds of rising protectionism, increasing signals point to a good start for China’s economy for the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, injecting much-needed certainty and confidence into the world.
The Chinese economic momentum is highlighted by domestic demand, industrial production and foreign trade, and driven by pro-growth policies, innovation, and structural adjustment.
The Chinese government has prioritized such tasks as boosting domestic demand, developing new quality productive forces, implementing landmark reform measures, and expanding high-standard opening up, for this year.
Foreign trade remains one of the bright spots for the largest developing country, whose Q1 goods trade volume hit a record high for the same period. Beating market expectations, China’s exports in Q1 grew by 6.9 percent. The resilience of foreign trade has been underpinned by its diversification of international markets and innovation-based competitiveness.
Other figures also attest to the steady recovery trend, especially the upward trajectory since the final quarter of last year. The purchasing managers’ index of the manufacturing sector registered a one-year high in March and remained in expansion territory for the second consecutive month.
In the first two months of this year, industrial production, consumption, and investment growth rates surpassed last year’s full-year figures. The domestic sales of excavators for major manufacturers grew by 28.5 percent in March, reflecting the momentum in infrastructure investment.
Bangladesh economy struggles: ADB
In a sharp downgrade, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) now expects Bangladesh’s economy to grow by just 3.9 percent in the current fiscal year, before increasing to 5.1 percent in FY2025-26.
The ADB also warns that the 12-month average inflation in Bangladesh is expected to rise further to 10.2 percent in FY25, before easing to 8 percent in the next fiscal.
The predictions were made by the ADB in their latest report, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025, released on 9 April.
Despite growth in Bangladesh’s exports in the garments sector, the slower growth forecast reflects weaker domestic demand amid political transition, risks of natural disasters, industrial unrest, and high inflation. Bangladesh’s economic growth was 4.2 percent in FY2024.
In a press conference held today, ADB Country Director for Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong said Bangladesh currently faces macroeconomic challenges such as a slowing economy, persistent high inflation, limited domestic revenue mobilisation, low foreign direct investment, increasing non-performing loans in banks, and insufficient foreign exchange reserves.
“Nevertheless, it is reassuring to note that the Interim Government has made macroeconomic stability a focus, alongside institutional, social, and political reforms,” he noted.
“Despite external and domestic headwinds, Bangladesh’s economy remains resilient, which can be fortified by implementing crucial structural reforms,” he added.
On the supply side, services growth is expected to be slower due to political uncertainty, financial sector vulnerability, and reduced household purchasing power.
Agricultural growth is likely to moderate following repeated floods, while industry growth is expected to improve marginally with a rebound in manufacturing aided by export growth.
FKI sends economic delegation to Indonesia
The Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) announced on April 20 that it will dispatch an economic delegation to Indonesia for a two-day visit from April 28 to 29. The delegation will be led by Shin Dong-bin, Chairman of Lotte Group, and will include top executives from major South Korean conglomerates such as Samsung Electronics, SK, Hyundai Motor, LG, Lotte, POSCO, Hanwha, HD Hyundai, and KB Financial Group.
The delegation aims to establish a strong network with the new Indonesian government, led by President-elect Prabowo Subianto, which was launched in October 2024. Discussions will focus on expanding bilateral economic cooperation and mutual investment, with particular emphasis on next-generation growth sectors including energy, infrastructure, and digital industries.
On April 28, the first day of the visit, the delegation will co-host the Korea-Indonesia Business Roundtable with the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo). Key government officials and business leaders from both countries are expected to participate, with discussions centered on industrial cooperation and policy support measures. The delegation will also hold official meetings with Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, the Minister of Investment, and the Minister of Industry.
Kim Bong-man, Head of FKI’s International Division, stated, “Since the inauguration of the new Indonesian administration, bilateral exchanges have yet to be fully activated. This delegation represents a proactive step by economic organizations and corporations to enhance private-sector cooperation.”
Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, is emerging as a key partner for Korean companies in the ASEAN region. With a rapidly growing domestic market driven by a rising middle class and abundant natural resources—including the world’s largest nickel reserves—Indonesia offers strong economic potential.
In 2023, trade between South Korea and Indonesia reached $20.5 billion, making Indonesia Korea’s 13th largest trading partner. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.03 percent in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of growth above 5 percent.
AI in Japan
In Japanese language, Mirai-Shiko Kuni means a future-oriented country. That is precisely what Japan is. Excelling in manufacturing, electronics, robotics and automotive, Japan is a dominant progressive force in technological innovation. It is now playing a pivotal role in the development of artificial intelligence (AI).
The use and implementation of AI has taken the world by storm. Japanese cabinet office announced its first AI strategy in 2016. After two iterations, the new formulated strategy is now called AI Strategy 2022.
According to the 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan published by the Japanese government in 2016, Japan had set itself the goal to become Society 5.0. The vision was to amplify industrial competitiveness and realise the significance of data and new technologies to address and overcome the problems of declining birth rate, an aging population, energy, environment and work-force scarcity.
In February 2019, a published AI-document named Social Principles of Human-Centric AI said Society 5.0 was supportable. It was an internet of things (IoT), latest technologies and robotics harnessed to create unmatched worth.
In the Council of Europe Framework Convention on AI and Human Rights, Democracy and The Rule of Law, Japan assisted in the drafting of convention but only as an observer state from Asia.
The Hiroshima AI process was hosted and headed by Japan in May 2023. Other G7 nations too were represented. The aim in launching the Hiroshima AI process was to foster international collaboration; ensure safe, trustworthy and secure use of AI; establish transparency; and safeguard data privacy.
Malaysia’s economy grew 4.4pc y/y in Q1
Malaysia’s economy grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier and the country’s exports to the United States surged in March, data showed on Friday, as authorities warned that US tariffs were creating uncertainty.
The official advance GDP estimates showed the economy slowing from growth of 5 percent in the final quarter of 2024, with the statistics department saying domestic activity and demand had underpinned growth. Final first-quarter data is due on May 16.
“Malaysia’s GDP growth held firm amid persistent global headwinds, underpinned by resilient domestic fundamentals,” Chief Statistician Mohd Uzir Mahidin said.
He said strength in retail and wholesale trade, a good jobs market and improved demand for key exports had helped buffer the economy against global challenges.
Separate data showed a stronger-than-expected 6.8 percent annual rise in exports in March, with shipments to the United States rising by 50.8 percent to a record 22.66 billion ringgit ($5.14 billion).
In early April, US President Donald Trump announced a global round of import tariffs, most of which have been delayed until July.
Malaysia, which is facing a 24 percent tariff rate, is sending a delegation next week to meet US officials for talks.
The trade ministry said despite the global trade war the central bank had maintained its forecast for GDP growth this year at 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent, and said export growth was seen at 5.2 percent.
“Moving forward, however, there is a need for caution given the uncertainties of global demands, which may temper growth in investments and domestic demand,” the ministry said.
“As a small, open trading nation, Malaysia is inevitably exposed to heightened external uncertainties in the global trading landscape.”
Nepal envoy advocates direct flights
Nepal’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Rita Dhital, has emphasized that the resumption of direct flights between Nepal and major Pakistani cities such as Karachi and Islamabad would be a key driver for improving bilateral trade, economic cooperation, and tourism exchanges.
She made these remarks during a meeting with Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) President Mian Abuzar Shad and other LCCI officials.
Ambassador Dhital highlighted the critical role of direct air connectivity in facilitating trade by reducing logistical barriers and fostering people-to-people linkages. She stated that the restoration of direct flights between Kathmandu and Pakistan’s major cities would ease travel, thereby strengthening the commercial and cultural ties between the two nations.
She also proposed a high-level trade delegation from Pakistan visit Nepal to explore trade and investment opportunities. Such exchanges, she said, would allow both countries to better understand each other’s markets and regulatory environments, paving the way for further cooperation.
The Ambassador pointed out the significant untapped potential in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, IT, education, tourism, and agriculture for joint ventures between Pakistan and Nepal.
The Ambassador further emphasized that Nepal, a landlocked country, understands the importance of regional cooperation and integration for sustainable growth. She expressed the need for a renewed focus on connectivity and economic partnerships in the region.
US reciprocal tariffs and economy of Sri Lanka
The recent economic measures introduced by the United States have had a profound impact on global trade, with Sri Lanka being one of the most affected nations. Under President Donald Trump, a series of “reciprocal tariffs” were implemented to address perceived unfair trade practices by several countries, including Sri Lanka. These tariffs, which range from 11 percent to 50 percent, are expected to have a lasting effect on Sri Lanka’s economy, particularly its export sectors and stock market. Notably, Sri Lanka is among the top 10 countries affected by these tariffs, facing a rate as high as 44 percent.
Among the nations facing the highest tariffs, Lesotho and Madagascar stand out with a 50 percent tariff. Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Laos also face hefty tariffs of 44 percent. Other countries affected include Vietnam (46 percent), Cambodia (49 percent), Syria, and the Falkland Islands (41 percent). Countries such as China, India, Malaysia, and Thailand face tariffs between 30 percent and 40 percent. On the lower end of the spectrum, Cameroon (11 percent), Mozambique (16 percent), and Malawi (17 percent) face comparatively lower tariffs. These tariffs are intended to reduce the US trade imbalance with these countries, potentially affecting their economies, with Sri Lanka being one of the hardest hit.
In 2023, Sri Lanka had trade surplus with the United Stets, amounting to approximately $ 2.49 billion. US exports to Sri Lanka totalled $ 351.1 million, while imports from Sri Lanka reached $ 2,842.1 million. For 2024, US exports to Sri Lanka are expected to rise slightly to $ 368.2 million, while imports from Sri Lanka are forecast to increase to $ 3,015.6 million, resulting in a projected trade deficit of $ 2.65 billion. Early estimates for the first two months of 2025 suggest the trade deficit will persist at $ 532.3 million.