Commodity markets in 2020
Wheat
International studies presently revealed that the Wheat production in 2020 could decline below last year’s level following this month’s downward revisions in the EU, the Russian Federation and Ukraine mostly on unfavourable weather conditions. Utilization in 2020/21 also forecast to decline compared to 2019/20, as both feed and industrial use are expected to fall. Trade forecast for 2020/21 scaled up m/m, largely on higher projected imports by Iran, Sudan and Egypt; export prospects trimmed for the EU, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, but raised for Australia, Argentina and Canada. Stocks (ending in 2021) forecast higher than last month resulting in a y/y gain of 1.5 percent, with China responsible for most of the y/y expansion as well as the m/m increase in the forecast.
Maize
Furthermore, the Maize 2020 production to exceed the 2019 record significantly (5.6 percent), boosted by record harvests expected in the US, Canada, and Ukraine, and near-record in Brazil and Argentina. Utilization in 2020/21 forecast to recover from the reduced level in 2019/20 on expectation of a rebound in industrial demand, especially for production of ethanol in the US, and growth in feed use, especially in China. Trade for 2020/21 (July/June) to expand slightly from 2019/20, supported by ample export availabilities and relatively low prices. Stocks (ending 2021) set to reach an all-time high, after shrinking for two consecutive seasons, largely driven by a projected rise in US maize inventories of over fifty percent.
Rice
The Studies also recorded that the Rice production in 2020 to recover to a new record, as more normal weather and attractive prices underpin recoveries namely in China, Laos, Pakistan, Thailand and the US, and sustain continued growth in India. Utilization in 2020/21 to expand further, with global per capita food intake seen up by 0.6 percent y/y. Trade in 2020 still expected to recover only modestly, but large exportable availabilities tentatively seen supporting a more vigorous trade expansion in 2021. Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) seen at their third highest on record, despite another modest decline. Another build-up in the major exporters to largely compensate for draw-downs elsewhere, namely in China.
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Soybean
Moreover, Soybean 2020/21 production to recover from the 2019/20 drop, assuming a return to average yields and a moderate increase in plantings; the rebound would be led by the US, although gains are also expected for Brazil and Argentina. Utilization in 2020/21 to resume growing after the near-stagnation in 2019/20; the rise is expected to originate primarily in China, but also in Brazil, Argentina and the US. Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) is forecast to keep expanding at a rate of 2–3 percent; the y/y rise would be supported by the recovery in demand from China, while the US would account for most of the anticipated rise in global shipments. Global inventories (2020/21 carry-out) are tentatively forecast to decrease slightly, with additional drawdowns in the US outweighing modest replenishments in China and Brazil.
