The word on the street about New World Order is corona. The pandemic treated all the human beings, objects and economic systems equally and without any distinction of race, color or blood. All those, who stood steadfast during the times of isolations, whether individual or groups in nations were bestowed upon with a ‘distancing-gift’ by novel coronavirus.
Each RED FLAGYL of coronavirus presents an opportunity for Pakistan. Playing its cards with alacrity and agility could bring dignity and much needed respect for Pakistan in the world post-coronavirus. This is for first time that kinship of dollar with debt and kinship of oil with consumption has been exposed greatly. Dollar is king because the debt is dollar denominated and oil forced to trade in dollars. Pakistan is akin to interests of both Saudi Arabia and US along with China. Guessing that Russia, China and US are in a straight battle for control over Asian resources, then what suits to Pakistan is to stay with its interest and not with an elephant of the battlefield. Because nobody has any idea as to what may come out, at the end of this pandemic disaster in which an economic war is being fought in a very silent and settled manner where:
- Saudi Arabia might end-up being a debt-ridden nation having huge obligation to deliver oil in futures.
- US policy of printing dollars and creating debt is bitten by a double edge sword of defaults and/or replacement with some other currencies including Chinese move for regional currency pairs such as PKR/YUAN.
- China supersedes US or China becomes victim of elongated inactivity and zero-demand.
- Arch rivals of today’s oil war emerge as partners in concluding US shell companies and world sees an end to PETRO-DOLLARS being replaced by joint currency influenced by China, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Corona outbreak left behind the woes of 2008, broke sixty-year records of negative growth and brought the strident tones of 1930s in the central processing area of modern-day economists.
Today’s worry is not about a question as to whether world will be able to come out of the elongated reboot, the real worry is about a question, as to who “do you SEE coming back?” and who is be able to function in accordance with the new norms and New World Order.
The conspiracy theories about the origin of this pandemic substantiate the notion that the outbreak has strong materialistic roots, the Indian decision to side with America in maligning China is nothing more than a forlorn hope to win some financial assistance and support on Kashmir from US. Pakistan, whose economy has been classified as “grey”, can join any color in this race of minting money, and Iran would not cast any aspersions over China over the pretext losing a trusted buyer of its oil.
A $20 trillion lawsuit has been filed against Chinese authorities, which is a bigger amount than China’s GDP, claiming coronavirus is the result of a biological weapon prepared by the Chinese authorities.
Corona will redefine the world and would serve as launch pad for Internet of Things (IoT), many businesses would cease to exist and a world map may get an overhaul without wars, world might practice the experience what Russia experienced by going out of map without firing of a single bullet.
Pakistan sought debt relief which was pleasantly and immediately accorded by the loaning agencies and G20 countries without any hem or hesitation. Hence, payment obligations to World Bank, Paris bank, IDB and G20 shall stand-still until June 2022. Existing crises is far worst and more superior than the Great Depressions of 1930s, and could have well facilitated a call for writing-off the loans. The five-billion-dollar loan of Saudi Arabia, and UAE along 3.4 billion dollars of China are such that Government should ask these friendly States to “excuse” or reschedule the repayments over 40-45 years’ horizon.
The supply of 1.4 billion dollars under emergency relief funds is a sigh of relief nonetheless, if Pakistan is able to meet the IMF conditions and continues to get further tranches as per the ongoing IMF program.
[box type=”note” align=”” class=”” width=””]Writer is a Capital Market practitioner[/box]