Under range-bound market, KSE-100 index loses 1.2%wow
Summary
The week in the stock market remained dull with no positive triggers to boost the market. The market was bearish four days in the week but on last day there was positivity in the market on FATF issue as the US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Alice Wells appreciated Pakistan’s significant progress in compliance with FATF Action plan in quite a short period of time.; and stock gained 126 points.
Over all it was a dull week with average volume declining to 187 million shares/day from 246 million previous week. The market capitalization declined by Rs.126 billion to stand at Rs.7.959 trillion. Note able during the week were that all foreigners, companies, bank and mutual funds were buyer in the market while individuals were the only sellers worth $19.31m. Investors restrained themselves to wait for the upcoming Monetary Policy on 28th January.
Monday was a memorable day for stock exchange as the change in circuit breakers to 5.50 from 5 percent was put into practice. The market started in a positive mode gaining 135 points. Later it succumbed to selling pressure to lose 420.14 points to close at 42,747.62.
On Tuesday, the investors remained in uncertainty on the outcome of FATF group meeting in Beijing followed by a review of February to decide about Pakistan’s grey list status. The KSE-100 Index shed 121.15 points to close at 42,626.47.
On Wednesday, the market was brought down by the rumours on OGDC that government would be divesting its holding at a discount. Later a clarification by Privatization Commission (PC) gave strength to the market. The Index declined was limited to 65.20 to close the Index at 42,561.27.
The market continued to be bearish on Thursday although the Beijing meeting on FATF was concluded satisfactory for Pakistan and OGDC matter was clarified by the PC. The market remained range bound shedding 54.33 closing 42,506.94.
On Friday, the market turned positive as the investors felt the issue of FATF was under control of the government and they were seem to be focusing more on incoming Monetary Policy on 28th January with a positive mindset. The market gained 126.08 points to close at 42,633.02.
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Participants/Activity
On average shares of 353 companies were traded. Of these 134 were gainers and 200 were loser and 19 remained unchanged.
Foreigners were net buyer $4.81m during the week; companies were buyer by $9.42m, Banks were seller $3.08m; Mutual fund net seller $2.63m and individuals net seller $19.31m.
Volume leaders during the week were: Maple Leaf 55m; TRG Pak Ltd 37m; World Telecom 36m; Bank of Punjab 24m; Unity Foods 19m; OGDC 19m; Engro Fertilizer 15m; Fauji Cement, Al-Shaheer (R) and Hascol Petrol 14m each; D G Khan Cement 13m; Byco Petroleum 11m; Fauji Fertilizer Bin 10m; Summit Bank, Engro Polymer 9m each; Merit Packaging 8m and Avanceon Ltd 7m.
Triggers
- New circuit breaker rule takes effect from Monday by a raise of 0.5 percent. It will be revised by 0.5 points twice after 15 days each until it reaches 7 percent.
- For Monetary Policy on 28th of this month, financial circle expects the SBP to maintain status quo as high rates have attracted $2.2 billion foreign exchange reserves.
- Pakistan falls 3 spots on the Corruption Perception Index.
Conclusion
Technically the RSI & MACD have moved down supporting a corrective view. Any upside will face a resistance in the range of 42,910 where a break above will cause the uptrend to resume with 43,468.
Raees Uddin Khan,
Research & Development Institute of Securities Management Research & Training (Pvt) Ltd, Karachi.
Dated: Jan 25, 2020