PSX benchmark index sheds 3.23%WoW
Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed bearish momentum during this past week, with the benchmark Index shedding 5,520 points or 3.23%WoW to close at 166,596 on Friday, May 15, 2026. The average daily trading volume declined 6.3%WoW to 1.1 billion shares. The key sentiment driver remained the escalating US-Iran conflict, with Brent crude hovering around US$106/ bbl throughout the week, amid blockade of Strait of Hormuz.
Trump termed Iran’s response to the US proposal “unacceptable”, though sentiments improved slightly towards the week-end after US Vice President signaled progress in talks. Pakistan’s mediation efforts drew support from both the US and China.
Pakistan received a US$1.3 billion IMF disbursement under the EFF and RSF programs following completion of the third EFF review and announcement of new performance criteria.
On the macro front, fiscal deficit narrowed to lowest ever of 0.7% of GDP or PKR856 billion in 9MFY26 as compared to 2.6% in same period last year.
Primary surplus rose 18%YoY to PKR4.1 trillion or 3.2% of GDP and petroleum levy collections increased 45%YoY to PKR1.2 trillion during 9MFY26.
In April 2026, Auto sales doubled to 22,000 units, remittances rose 11.4%YoY to US$3.5 billion, taking 10MFY26 inflows to US$33.9 billion, up 8.5%YoY
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) edged up to US$15.87 billion as of May 08, 2026.
Provisional GDP growth was reported at 3.7% against a target of 4.2%, with per capita income increased to record high of US$1,901, economy size at US$452.1 billion, and public debt at PKR80.5 trillion as of March 2026.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan successfully launched its inaugural US$250 million Panda Bond in China’s onshore capital market with 5x oversubscribed at the lowest ever rate of 2.5%, 2) Government aims to keep PKR425 billion in upcoming budget for unforeseen events, 3) Pakistan diverted gas to fertilizer plants amid Hormuz-related supply disruptions, while Qatari LNG cargoes continued arriving through special transit arrangements, 4) Government remains committed to abolishing PKR140 billion gas cross-subsidy by Jane 2027 under IMF structural benchmark, and 5) Pakistan imported 6 million barrels of US crude oil through Cnergyico for the first time.
Top performing sectors were: Leasing Companies, Leather & Tanneries, and Sugar & Allied Industries, while laggards included: Textile Weaving, Textile Composite, and Synthetic & Rayon.
Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds and Companies of US$8.90 million and US$5.07 million respectively. Major net buyers were Individuals and Brokers with US$14.20 million and US$1.07 million, respectively.
Top performing scrips were: GADT, TRG, PGLC, KEL, and SRVI, while laggards included: KTML, PIOC, AICL, UBL, and FHAM.
Going forward, Iran-US negotiations and international oil price remain the key drivers in the near term, with any easing in Strait of Hormuz tensions serving as a key supportive trigger.
The recent IMF disbursement of US$1.3 billion under EFF and RSF programs, alongside Pakistan’s landmark Panda Bond debut, reinforces the improving external financing outlook. Market continues to trade at attractive valuations.
The top picks of AKD Securities include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.
Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) held an analyst call to discuss 9MFY26 financial results and outlook. Following are the takeaways as reported by Topline Securities,
The company’s oil and gas production during the quarter crossed 40,000bpd, after nearly 6.5 years, owing to the addition of Baragzai which is currently contributing 6000bpd. Production would have been higher by 2,671bpd in the absence of curtailment.
The curtailment mainly pertains to Bettani (2,300bpd) and Nashpa (300bpd), due to high pressure in SNGPL’s line network. While a field development plan for Bettani is already in place, pipeline capacity enhancement by SNGPL will be required to fully realize the field’s potential, this may take approximately 6-9 months.
The reserve size of Baragzai is estimated at 100 million BOE, and management expects to increase production to 22,000-25,000 bpd from this field within the next 2-2.5 years. Additional wells are expected to be drilled durung CY27 and will be brought in production line through infrastructure of Manzalai and capacity enhancement at Nashpa. Oil from this field is being supplied to Attock Refinery (ATRL).
A new discovery in KPK (Gurgalot) is nearing completion, and holds strong prospects. The cost of drilling the well so far is estimated around US$15 million to US$20 million.
The company’s receivable recovery ratio declined to 87% during the quarter, mainly due to reduced recovery from Uch and CPPA-G. The previous quarter’s recovery was higher due to one-off settlements from Uch power. However, collections in April 2026 are much higher than the previous quarter.
OGDC has recently partnered with a French company to install a water injection facility at Kunner and Pasakhi in order to enhance pressure and increase oil production from the fields.
Management also commented on the KPD compression project, noting that it has faced some delays and is now likely to be completed by the end of this calendar year 2026.
Management is targeting up to 50,000bpd by end December 2026 and expect to achieve this target even without any major new discoveries by focusing on production optimization, which has already added 11,000bpd since FY24.
The company’s reserve replacement ratio stands at 153% including JV fields, while the ratio for only OGDC-operated fields is significantly higher at 240%.
ADNOC is expected to come online as per earlier schedule, while Reko Diq project progress is ongoing, and project economics are strong enough to get it to completion.
On gas sector circular debt, management stated that the plan is currently submitted to IMF and this will most likely be a balanced plan between minority shareholders and company itself to ensure its acceptance.
On Super tax, management mentioned that companies have started receiving notices from tax commissioners for the calculation of tax liability under signed PCAs. Management also added that the completion of this exercise will take some time.