The possibility that Pakistan could face acute food shortages over the next couple of years should not be dismissed as an alarmist prediction. The purpose of highlighting this emerging risk is not to make people jittery, but to draw attention to potentially serious scenarios and encourage timely measures to minimize their adverse impact. Climate change is no longer a distant threat for Pakistan. Its consequences are becoming increasingly visible, while the country’s ability to absorb repeated shocks remains worryingly limited.
Pakistan’s food-security problem may not be that it cannot produce enough food; it is that the country cannot reliably produce, conserve, store and distribute what it produces in an increasingly unpredictable climate.
People cognizant of the adverse effects of climate change have received repeated jolts after watching videos of flash floods sweeping through villages, agricultural land and infrastructure. Pakistan faces a double-edged sword. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns can intensify droughts, while accelerated glacial melting and extreme rainfall can trigger devastating floods. In both situations, the agriculture sector is likely to be among the worst affected.
This presents a fundamental food-security dilemma. If standing crops are destroyed by floods or drought, Pakistan will have little choice but to import food to meet domestic requirements. The more worrying aspect, however, is that Pakistan may not be the only country confronting such a predicament. Climate-related disruptions are likely to affect agricultural production across several parts of the world. If multiple food-producing countries simultaneously experience crop failures, international supplies could tighten sharply and food prices could rise beyond the purchasing capacity of vulnerable economies.
Pakistan’s first major weakness is its chronic shortage of water-storage capacity. The storage capacity of existing reservoirs has declined substantially because of silt accumulation, while the country has lagged behind in developing new reservoirs. Consequently, during periods of drought, farmers may not receive adequate irrigation water even when water is available elsewhere in the system.
The paradox is equally painful during periods of excessive rainfall. When heavy rains occur, enormous quantities of water rush downstream and eventually into the sea, inundating agricultural land, damaging crops and livestock, and destroying infrastructure. Canals, roads, bridges and railway tracks can all be washed away. In the absence of adequate storage facilities, precious rainwater that could have been conserved for future use is simply lost.
The deterioration of Pakistan’s irrigation infrastructure compounds the problem. There was a time when Pakistan possessed one of the world’s largest man-made irrigation systems. Over the decades, however, inadequate maintenance, encroachments, siltation and inefficient water management have steadily weakened the system. The condition of some major barrages and the canals originating from them should be a matter of national concern. The deterioration of such critical infrastructure threatens not only agricultural productivity but also the country’s broader food-security architecture.
Water availability is only one side of the equation. Pakistan also lacks adequate modern facilities for storing food grains and perishable agricultural produce. Wheat, the country’s principal staple crop, is frequently stored in outdated and poorly maintained warehouses. The consequences are substantial. A significant portion of food grains and an even larger proportion of fruits and vegetables can deteriorate before reaching consumers. Food that has already been produced is therefore lost because the country lacks the infrastructure to preserve it. This is an unacceptable situation for a country that repeatedly struggles to finance food imports.
It is never too late to begin corrective action. Canals and watercourses can be rehabilitated, embankments strengthened, barrages repaired, and leakage and seepage reduced. More importantly, water-management policy must move from crisis response to long-term planning. Every additional unit of water stored represents insurance against the next drought, while every improvement in irrigation efficiency reduces pressure on already scarce resources.
The area requiring work on a war footing, however, is food storage. Pakistan reportedly produces around 30 million tons of wheat and approximately 10 million tons each of maize and rice annually. Yet the country does not possess an adequate network of modern, internationally compliant commercial warehouses and specialized grain-storage facilities.
This gap also represents an investment opportunity. For FY27, the State Bank of Pakistan has set an agricultural lending target of around PKR4 trillion. A portion of this financing should be channelled toward building a modern agricultural-storage ecosystem. Entrepreneurs, banks and institutional investors need to be encouraged to construct and operate commercial warehouses, silos, cold-storage facilities and logistics centres.
Experts have suggested the development of specialized grain-storage facilities with capacity exceeding five million tons. Such infrastructure should not be treated merely as a business venture; it should be considered an essential component of national food security. Modern storage can reduce post-harvest losses, stabilize supplies, improve farmers’ bargaining power and enable electronic warehouse-receipt financing, allowing stored commodities to serve as collateral for agricultural credit.
Pakistan cannot control the global climate, but it can control how prepared it is to confront its consequences. The country cannot prevent every flood or drought, but it can store more water, protect its irrigation network, reduce post-harvest losses and build adequate food reserves.
The choice is therefore between preparation today and crisis tomorrow. If the government continues to postpone corrective measures, a combination of climate shocks, inadequate water management and insufficient food storage could transform periodic shortages into a full-blown food-security crisis. The objective is not to predict famine; it is to ensure that Pakistan never reaches the point where such a prediction becomes reality.