- Dividend trends continue, led by oil, banking, and fertilizer stocks with strong payout ratios
- If corporate results remain strong, PSX could touch 165,000 by year-end 2025
Interview with Mr. Aamir Ijaz Khan, Executive Director of ICMA Pakistan
PAGE: Tell me something about yourself, please:
Aamir Ijaz Khan: I am a finance and management professional with over 25 years of diverse experience in manufacturing, oil and gas, the public sector, and professional services. I am a Fellow Member of ICMA Pakistan, a Chartered Management Accountant, and a Chartered Management Professional from the Institute of Chartered Management Professionals – USA. Currently, I serve as Executive Director of ICMA Pakistan, leading strategic initiatives to align the institute with global standards and foster professional excellence. Earlier in my career, I worked with SNGPL and the World Bank-funded PIFRA project. I am also a Certified Corporate Director and SAP FI/CO Consultant, with expertise in implementation, budgeting, compliance, and business transformation. I’ve represented Pakistan at international forums such as IFAC, CAPA and SAFA, and led AML/CFT workshops nationwide under the AML Act 2010. I serve as Secretary of the AML Supervisory Board, Director on the Board of the Foundation of SAFA, and Technical Advisor to IFAC’s PAIB Advisory Group. As founder president of the ICMA Lahore Toastmasters Club and executive committee member of MENSA Pakistan, I actively contribute to leadership and talent development. Passionate about digital finance and inclusive growth, I continue to work toward building economic resilience across Pakistan and South Asia.
PAGE: KSE-100 index crossed 136,000 points which is unprecedented. What is your standpoint in this regard?
Aamir Ijaz Khan: I believe that the recent surge in the KSE-100 Index is a strong reflection of investor optimism and improving economic fundamentals. While crossing the 136,000-point mark was a significant milestone, the index went even further, reaching an intraday high of 138,943.47 on July 17, 2025, and closing that day at 138,665.50, representing an impressive single-day gain of 2,285 points (1.68%). In my opinion, this upward momentum is being driven by improvements in the macroeconomic environment, including declining inflation, a stable currency, and healthier external accounts. I also observe strong performance from sectors such as banking, fertilizers, and other blue-chip stocks, supported by expectations of solid corporate earnings. However, I remain cautiously optimistic. I consider 135,000 to be a key support level, and the market’s minor pullbacks on July 15 and July 21 (with declines of 0.41% and 0.27%, respectively) indicate that a drop below this threshold could lead to a correction toward 132,000. If upcoming earnings reports meet expectations and positive capital flows continue, I believe the surge can be sustained. Otherwise, it is likely that some profit-taking will occur, as investors may choose to secure their recent gains.
PAGE: What is your take on expectations of robust financial results and dividend payouts during the ongoing earnings season?
Aamir Ijaz Khan: In my view, expectations of strong financial results and attractive dividend payouts during the ongoing earnings season are well justified. Over the past two years, many Pakistani companies have reported solid profitability and rewarded investors with consistent, and often generous, dividends. A key example was the mid-2024 market surge, which was partially driven by anticipation of high payouts from oil and banking stocks. This trend appears to be continuing. Analysts now expect robust earnings, particularly in the fertilizer, banking, and oil sectors, which traditionally lead in both performance and distributions. Recent announcements support this outlook. Bestway Cement declared a 100% cash dividend for FY2025, and UBL paid a 160% interim dividend in June. Several other companies also maintain an average payout ratio of 50% or more, further reinforcing the strength of the current cycle. I believe this earnings season will not only deliver solid results but also sustain the trend of generous dividends — both of which are likely to enhance investor confidence and support market momentum.
PAGE: What is the role of falling inflation, monetary easing, a stable rupee, reserves exceeding $14 billion, and improved remittances and exports in the performance of PSX?
Aamir Ijaz Khan: In my opinion, the strong performance of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is closely linked to the improving macroeconomic environment. A combination of falling inflation, monetary easing, a stable currency, rising foreign exchange reserves, and improving external accounts has created a more favorable landscape for investors. Official data highlights this clearly. Headline inflation dropped to just 3.2% year-on-year in June 2025, down from double digits a year earlier, which enabled the State Bank of Pakistan to ease interest rates. This shift has not only reduced borrowing costs but also boosted investor sentiment. At the same time, foreign inflows have strengthened significantly. Remittances reached $24.0 billion during Jul-Feb FY25, reflecting a 32.5% year-on-year increase. Foreign exchange reserves crossed $14.5 billion by June 2025, restoring external confidence. Moreover, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of approximately $2.1 billion in FY25, the first in over a decade, thanks to a modest recovery in exports — which, according to PBS data, rose 4.5% over the previous year.
Taken together, these developments have reinforced macroeconomic stability. I believe this improved backdrop has been instrumental in driving the recent surge in the PSX, as investors respond positively to a more predictable and growth-oriented economic environment.
PAGE: Some analysts are anticipating index’s further upward movement. What is your perspective?
Aamir Ijaz Khan: I believe the PSX still has room to grow, though I remain cautiously optimistic. Some analysts, including AKD Research, have projected the KSE-100 Index could reach 165,000 by year-end. While that may seem ambitious, it is not unrealistic if current trends continue. The market’s price-to-earnings ratio is around 6, which suggests that many stocks remain undervalued. If strong corporate results persist and we see positive developments — such as IMF support, a credit rating upgrade, or continued macroeconomic stability — the index could move higher. However, I am mindful of key technical levels. The 135,000 level is seen as strong support. If the index dips below it, we may see profit withdrawals. That said, I expect investor interest to return around 132,000, given the attractive valuations at that level. Overall, I see further upside potential, but sustained gains will depend on consistent earnings performance and continued positive signals from the economy.