- Govt enhanced crude oil imports, enabling higher refinery capacity utilisation and rising petroleum exports
In the absence of a major disruption, in 2025 oil markets look well supplied. World oil demand is forecast to increase by 720 kb/d this year, marginally below last month’s estimate as weak 2Q25 deliveries in the United States and China undercut resilience elsewhere.
| Pakistan: Consumption of Petroleum Products (000 MT) | |||||
| Sector | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | July-March FY 2024 | July-March FY 2025 | Change (%) |
| Domestic | 17.95 | 24.66 | 18.80 | 20.18 | 7.34 |
| Industry | 1,126.85 | 1,076.72 | 815.32 | 755.40 | -7.35 |
| Agriculture | 9.21 | 14.51 | 10.16 | 9.82 | -3.35 |
| Transport | 13,606.63 | 13,232.03 | 9,764.55 | 10,544.30 | 7.99 |
| Power | 1,668.15 | 607.10 | 520.70 | 116.21 | -77.68 |
| Government | 365.09 | 312.89 | 224.70 | 232.05 | 3.27 |
| Overseas | 696.85 | 1,420.65 | 948.03 | 1,490.11 | 57.18 |
| Total | 17,490.73 | 16,688.56 | 12,302.25 | 13,168.07 | 7.04 |
Meanwhile, global oil supply in May was up by 1.9 mb/d from a year ago, led in part by the unwinding of voluntary OPEC+ production cuts. For 2025 as a whole, world oil supply is projected to rise by 1.8 mb/d to 104.9 mb/d and by an additional 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers are forecast to add 1.4 mb/d on average in 2025 and 840 kb/d next year.
In Pakistan, statistics showed that Pakistan’s crude oil import bill recorded double-digit growth during the first 11 months of the last fiscal year, while exports of petroleum products posted a substantial raise from a year ago. Crude oil imports grew by 13.53 percent to 9.387 million tons in 11MFY25, as against to 8.268m tons in the corresponding period last year. This increase enabled local refineries to ramp up production of petroleum products, leading to a notable surge in exports. Petroleum products exports soared 57.87 percent to $511.51m during the period under review, up from $323.81m a year earlier.
The sharp rise is attributed to enhanced domestic production and higher refinery capacity utilisation, supported through increased crude oil availability. In contrast, the import bill for petroleum products fell 8.55 percent in value terms despite a 5.55 percent rise in quantity — climbing to 9.744m tons from 9.23m tons in the last year. This shift suggests a growing reliance on locally refined products over direct imports.
Statistics showed that overall petroleum production grew 5.01 percent during July-April FY2025. High-speed diesel output, mainly used in transportation and agriculture, grew 9.83 percent. However, overall petroleum production recorded a modest growth of 1.91 percent. Exports of petroleum crude resumed during the period, standing 40,552 tons in compared to none in the corresponding period last year. Exports of petroleum products, excluding top naphtha, grew 46.8 percent to 923,519 tons, up from 616,567 tons.
Meanwhile, top naphtha exports surged 80.5 percent to 89,179 tons. The strong performance of the petroleum sector is expected to contribute positively to economic growth in the last fiscal year. On the other hand, presently the petrol prices have been increased by Rs8.36 per litre, pushing the new rate to Rs266.79, up from Rs258.43. High-speed diesel has also seen a hike of Rs10.39 per litre, standing Rs272.98 from Rs262.59. This marks the second consecutive fortnightly increase. In the previous review, petrol had gone up by Rs4.80 per litre and diesel by Rs7.95 per litre. The adjustment comes after recommendations from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) and relevant ministries.
The Government of Pakistan explained that the increase in fuel prices is because of fluctuations in international market trends, which have affected global oil prices. Sources said that our government has also imposed a carbon levy of Rs2.50 per litre on fuel. The petroleum development levy (PDL) on petrol has now been adjusted to Rs75.52 per litre, while diesel will carry a levy of Rs74.51 per litre. During July-March FY2025, as per the government of Pakistan report, total sectoral consumption of petroleum products reached at 13.17 million metric tons (MMT), recording a year-on-year rise of 7.04 percent compared to 12.30 MMT during the same period of FY 2024.
The statistics reflect varied consumption trends across dissimilar economic sectors, shaped by changes in industrial activity, power generation needs, transportation demand, and operational dynamics in public and overseas segments. The transport sector, which remains the dominant consumer, registered a 7.99 percent increase in consumption, rising from 9.76 MMT in July-March FY 2024 to 10.54 MMT in the same period of FY2025. This growth is indicative of increased mobility, recovery in trade and logistics, and higher fuel demand from road transport and commercial vehicles.
In contrast, the industrial sector saw a fall of 7.35 percent, with consumption dropping from 815.32 thousand metric tons (MT) to 755.40 thousand MT. A substantial decline of 77.68 percent was recorded in the power sector’s petroleum usage, which fell to just 116.21 thousand MT during July-March FY 2025.