- Pakistan must turn its large youth population into a workforce for sustainable economic growth
The United Nations has reported that the world’s population is projected to continue growing for the next 50 to 60 years, peaking at approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. After reaching this peak, it is expected to gradually decline to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
Currently, one in four people lives in a country where the population has already peaked. Fertility rates are declining, with women bearing, on average, one child fewer than in 1990, resulting in a global fertility rate of 2.3 live births per woman as of 2024. Life expectancy is rising again following the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, with projections of 77.4 years by 2054.
Notably, by 2080, the number of individuals aged 65 and older is expected to surpass that of children under 18, and by the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants. Countries facing demographic aging may need to leverage technology to enhance productivity and create lifelong learning opportunities, supporting multigenerational workforces and extending working lives as needed.
In Pakistan according to the ministry of finance, rapid population growth and high fertility rates are significantly straining the Pakistan’s economic development and its ability to offer essential services like healthcare, education, and social protection.
The Government of Pakistan is taking proactive measures to control population growth and fertility rates. They create awareness by media campaigns and offer Family Planning services through Family Welfare Centers (FWC), Reproductive Health Services Centers (RHS-A), Regional Training Institutes, and Mobile Service Units.
Despite comprising about 50 percent of the population in our country, women’s participation in the country’s labour force is considerably lower than that of men. However, it is essential to recognize their abilities, skills, and efficiency and understand the challenges and obstacles they encounter. Doing so is crucial in developing strategies that help retain female employees, promote gender equality, and create a more inclusive and supportive work environment. This, in turn, can contribute to a more balanced labour force and foster hope for a brighter future.
Our country faces the daunting task of transforming its large number of young people into a demographic dividend. Unluckily, Pakistan’s economic opportunities have not kept pace with its population growth and changing age structure. However, there is the reason for optimism given the government’s efforts to enhance employment prospects for young people through initiatives like the Prime Minister’s Youth Business & Agriculture Loan Scheme” and the “Prime Minister’s Youth Skill Development Program. Pakistan’s population has increased greater than threefold in the last 50 years, largely because of high fertility and growth rates. As a consequence, population density grew from 82 people per square kilometer in 1972 to 303 people per square kilometer in 2023. Ministry officials also recorded that Pakistan conducted its Seventh Population and Housing Census on 1st March 2023, the largest digitization exercise in South Asia.
The Council of Common Interest (CCI) approved the results of Pakistan’s First Ever Digital Census on 5th August 2023. This Digital Census featured unique characteristics, like self-enumeration through a web portal, the first in the region. The Census also offered an economic frame to determine the size of economic clusters throughout Pakistan.
Based on the 7th National Population and Housing Census, Pakistan’s overall population has increased by 16.3 percent to 241.5 million, compared to the population in 2017 (excluding Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan). The population growth rate at the national level is 2.55 percent. In contrast, the growth rate in urban areas is 3.65 percent, which is higher than the population growth rate in rural areas, i.e. 1.90 percent, because of rural-urban migration. The population density increased from 260.88 persons per square km in 2017 to 303 persons per square km in 2023. Additionally, the average household size has decreased from 6.39 in 2017 to 6.30 in 2023. Statistics showed that with a population of 127.68 million, Punjab stayed the most populous province, followed by Sindh, KPK, and Balochistan, with 55.69 million, 40.85 million, and 14.89 million, respectively.
The population of Islamabad reached 2.36 million in 2023. The government officials showed that Punjab saw a significant increase in population growth rate, rising from 2.13 percent to 2.53 percent. On the other hand, Islamabad witnessed a substantial decline in population growth rate, plummeting from 4.91 percent in 2017 to 2.81 percent in 2023. Pakistan’s urban population increased from 75.67 million to 93.75 million between 2017 and 2023, making it one of the most urbanized nations in South Asia. Almost 39 percent of its population lives in urban areas.
The experts record that countries with a growing youth population, like Pakistan, have the potential to benefit from a demographic dividend by investing strategically in education, skill development, and job creation. This can lead to a more dynamic and robust workforce, which drives economic growth and innovation. The government supports this effort by offering skill-training programs and facilitating access to finance to encourage youth entrepreneurship. Skill development institutes are also working to enhance the employability of the youth.
Additionally, the Government of Pakistan is exploring overseas employment opportunities, which will assist to reduce the unemployment burden on the economy and boost remittances.