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International researchers analysed the 2024 global export forecast of rice is lowered 3.4 million tonnes to 52.9 million tonnes, with exports from India lowered 4.0 million tonnes to 19.0 million tonnes. The 2024 export reduction for India was partially offset by increased export forecasts for Pakistan, Brazil, Russia, and Vietnam.

Pakistan: Yield Per Hectare Of Major Agricultural Crops (Kg/Hectare)
Fiscal Year Wheat Rice Sugarcane Maize Gram Cotton
2010-11 2,833 2,039 55,981 3,806 471 725
2011-12 2,714 2,396 55,196 3,991 282 815
2012-13 2,796 2,398 56,466 3,981 757 769
2013-14 2,824 2,437 57,511 4,233 420 774
2014-15 2,726 2,422 55,062 4,323 402 802
2015-16 2,779 2,483 57,897 4,426 304 582
2016-17 2,973 2,514 61,972 4,550 340 729
2017-18 2,851 2,568 62,096 4,718 331 753
2018-19 2,806 2,563 60,956 4,968 474 707
2019-20 2,868 2,444 63,841 5,614 528 618
2020-21 2,996 2,525 69,534 6,305 265 578
2021-22 2,920 2,635 70,341 5,764 367 731
2022-23 P 3,056 2460 69,085 5,922 287 390

The global exports for 2023, are reduced 1.9 million tonnes to 53.8 million tonnes, with India’s export forecast declined 2.0 million tonnes to 20.5 million tonnes. Moreover, import forecasts for the rice are lowered for various chief importers in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa for both 2023 and 2024. According to the forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), during FY2024 Pakistan’s rice output is forecasted to reach approximately 9 million tonnes.

The experts recorded that rice is the second main staple food crop after wheat and second major exportable commodity after cotton. Rice contributes 1.9 per cent of value added in agriculture and 0.4 per cent in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The production of coarse types is growing as the farmers are bringing more areas under coarse hybrid types during the last few years. Accordingly, rice exports are expected to increase to 4.8 million tonnes, as against to the last fiscal year’s 3.7 million tonnes of rice exports, a rise of almost 30 per cent YoY. To note, previous year’s rice exports generated a revenue value $2.5 billion for the country. This rise in exports is attributed to present market access granted to Mexico and Russia, expanding Pakistan’s reach in the worldwide rice market.

Pakistani rice exporters it is said, were also making attempts to explore new export markets and presently two countries have lifted ban on Pakistani rice export.

With the joint attempts or REAP, Ministry of Commerce and Department of Plant Protection, Russia and Mexico has opened doors for Pakistani rice after a long gap and for the country this will also assist earn more foreign exchange.

In addition, it is said that demand is also coming from Indonesia and presently some 90,000 metric tonnes of rice has been exported. There is a need to conduct Research and Development (R&D) in the rice sector to create new rice varieties.

Under the umbrella of REAP to generate new seed varieties to improve the per acre yield, experts have planned to organise a R&D department and a library. Our country is still using Irri-6 seed, while Philippines has introduced variety of Irri-257, which is much better than Irri-6. The experts suggested in order to control the price and supply of commodities, that the federal government must organise a policy board of all stakeholders to monitor the commodity demand and supply to take decisions on export of commodities like wheat and sugar.

For Pakistan, Russian and Mexico are good export markets and offering premium on rice price. From Pakistan they have even purchased Pakistani rice at $850 per metric tonne. The attempts or Ministry of Commerce and DPP for making fruitful efforts for restoration of rice exports to these two markets and as this will assist to attain $3 billion rice exports during this fiscal year. Statistics showed that REAP has already given a $5 billion rice export roadmap to the federal government some 4 years back but it is still not implemented. Pakistan can earn over $5 billion through rice exports if the government adopt REAP’s proposal. Without getting any subsidy from the government’s exchequer rice exporters are earning billions of dollars, despite healthy competition in the world market and higher doing of business cost in the country.

By export refinance scheme the government and State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) for continued support. It is informed that after the ban by India on rice export, in the world market rice prices has been surged by $100 per tonne and there are a number of exports opportunities for Pakistani traders. For Pakistan it is worth noting that in FY2022, produced a record-high 9.3 million tonnes of rice, while simultaneously exporting an impressive 4.8 million tonnes of this staple commodity. The USDA forecasts a bumper harvest of all major crops in Pakistan for 2023-24.