Uncertified seeds, inadequate lending, poor storage, and weak policies undermine Pakistan’s agriculture sector Farmers suffer from flash-floods, drought, nutrient deficiency, postharvest losses, and government inaction Ever since Pakistan appeared on world map, people were told that agriculture was the strongest forte, which is misleading because the country has been importing food items worth billions of dollars every year. It is partly because of the shifting focus of policy planners from agriculture to industries to agriculture, incongruent policies, hearted efforts to implement these policies and no linkages between agriculture universities/research institutions and farmers and above all little coordination between the federal…
Author: Shabbir Kazmi
Competition Commission recommended lifting ban on new sugar mills to enhance competition and fairness According to media reports, the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has sent a strong recommendation to the federal government asking it to lift a decades-old ban on the establishment of new sugar mills, a move aimed at countering falling domestic production, supply shortfalls, and rising consumer prices. The policy shift comes amid a renewed sugar price crisis, with rates soaring in wholesale and retail markets. The price instability is not due to any shortfall in sugarcane production in the country, but due to the alleged market…
PSX hits record high of 154,277 points Cement, banks, and energy lead gains as economic stability supports positive market sentiment Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained positive throughout the week, with the benchmark index posting CYTD’s 4th highest weekly return of 3.8%, closing at a record high of 154,277 points. Market participation also increased by 19%WoW, with average daily traded volume increasing to 1,068 million shares from 899 million shares a week ago. The rally was supported by successful China visit of prime minister, improving industrial activity, easing inflation, and strong corporate results. Cement sector led the gains, driven by a…
Cutting circular debt, reforming grid and boosting rooftop solar drive the nation’s energy transition Energy sector of Pakistan suffers from multiple issues here is a pragmatic, least-cost, “keep-the-lights-on” energy game plan for Pakistan that balances affordability, security, and decarbonization. The plan could be split it into near-term triage, medium-term build-out, and long-term structural moves, all grounded in what’s happening on the ground right now. The prime goal should be cutting average power cost, stabilize the grid, slash import exposure, and retire circular debt — without stalling the rooftop/ utility-solar boom. Installed capacity in Pakistan is still thermal and system performance…
PSX index hits record, up 2.0%wow Market strength stemmed from corporate earnings, Moody’s upgrade Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) was supported by strong corporate earnings and Moody’s upgrade of deposit ratings for Pakistani banks, while demonstrating weakness later on in the week due to political noise. The benchmark index touched an all-time high of 151,262 points, but closed the week at 149,493 points, up 2.0%WoW. Market participation rose 31%WoW to 790 million shares, from 606 million shares a week ago. On the macroeconomic front, Pakistan posted a current account deficit of US$254 million as compared to a deficit of US$348 million…
Pilot cargo in October 2025 aims to diversify sources, improve yields, and support trade talks. Diplomatic communication with Saudi Arabia is key to framing US crude as a supplement, not shift. Deciding whether Pakistan should import crude oil from the United States depends on multiple strategic, economic, and diplomatic factors. Here’s a balanced assessment based on the latest data and projections: Pakistan is slated to take delivery of its first-ever US crude oil, one million barrel cargo of light WTI crude from Vitol, expected to arrive in October 2025 at Cnergyico’s refinery in Karachi. This marks a pilot spot cargo —…
PSX index up 3.08%wow on earnings optimism Fertilisers, banks, E&Ps, and OMCs expected to lead PSX towards 165,215 points by year-end Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its bullish momentum throughout the week on anticipation of strong earnings during the ongoing results season. The benchmark index touched its all-time high closing at 145,647 points on Thursday, but closed the week at 145,383 points, up 4,348 points, up 3.08%WoW, with meager decline in the last trading session. Market participation improved with average daily traded volume increasing by 16.3%WoW to 653 million shares, up from 561 million shares a week ago. Trade deficit…
Benchmark index up 60%YoY in PKR terms and 57% in USD terms in FY25 Over the past two years (FY24 and FY25), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has recorded a total gain of 203% in PKR terms and 206% in US dollar terms, thanks to the macroeconomic stability country has achieved with the support of the IMF programme. The other factors contributing to this remarkable rally are: 1) completion of first IMF review of March this year, 2) aggressive monetary easing, reduction in policy rate to 11%, from 20.5 percent, 3) improvement in country’s credit rating by Fitch from CCC+…
Rallies 4% despite geopolitical tensions, easing concerns; Support from budget, foreign selling persists in consumer staples According to Intermarket Securities, Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) weathered another volatile month, this time due to the Iran-Israel conflict, before rallying hard to post 4%MoM returns. Daily trading activity was buoyant at US$142 million (ready + futures). Foreign corporates remained sellers, primarily in the consumer staples sector, while local individuals once again showed resilience and added to positions on dips. Other than easing geopolitical concerns, the market was supported by the passage of a market-friendly budget. This should lay grounds for improved price performance…
PSX benchmark index remains range bound Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range bound during the week, with the benchmark index trading within a band amid the absence of major triggers and rollover week. Nonetheless, the benchmark gained 610 points or 0.44%WoW to close at 139,207 on Friday July 25, 2025. However, market participation declined by 16.7%WoW to average 635 million shares traded per day. On the macro front, developments remained broadly positive as S&P upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating by one notch to B– after three years. Subsequently, Pak Eurobond yields declined across different maturities. Moreover, aforementioned improvement in credit rating…
Economic rebound and fuel price decline supported the volume According to Intermarket Securities volumes of oil marketing companies closed FY25 on a positive note. Total industry sales were up 8%YoY and 2%MoM in June 2025 to 1.6 million tons. The YoY recovery was driven by a 9% increase in HSD sales, 5% in MS, and a 22% surge in Furnace oil (FO) volumes to 129,000 tons. On a MoM basis, overall growth remained modest as an 8% decline in HSD was partially offset by a 5% rise in MS and a sharp 62% jump in FO. This took cumulative FY25…
Performance of E&Ps affected by over import of expensive LNG According to the data released by PPIS for June 2025, crude oil production for the full year amounted to 62,400 bpd, reflecting a decline of 12%YoY. Natural gas data showed production declining to 2.9 bcfd, down 8%YoY. Both oil and gas production have reached their lowest levels in over 20 years, primarily due to: 1) curtailment of production due to congestion in gas transmission network, 2) natural depletion in aging fields, and 3) constrained cash flow position. Company-wise oil production declined OGDC (7%YoY), PPL (12%YoY), and POL (6%YoY) during FY25.…
Bioniks by Anas Niaz creates low-cost prosthetics, uses remote fittings, to support Gaza war survivor children As soon as eight-year-old Sidra Al Bordeeni returned from the clinic with her prosthetic arm, she jumped on a bicycle in the Jordanian refugee camp where she lives, riding for the first time since a missile strike in Gaza took her arm a year ago, reports Ariba Shahid of Reuters. Sidra was injured while sheltering at Nuseirat School, one of several Gaza schools converted into makeshift refuges from Israeli strikes. Her mother, Sabreen Al Bordeeni, said Gaza’s collapsed health services and the family’s inability…
PSX benchmark index up 1.8%WoW Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued upward momentum during the week, driven by expectations of strong earnings. The benchmark Index was up 2,351 points or 1.8%WoW, closing the week at 134,300 points on Friday July 11, 2025. Positive sentiments were reinforced by workers’ remittances rising to US$3.4 billion in June 2025, up 8%YoY, taking FY25 inflows to US$38.3 billion, up 27%YoY. Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) were reported at US$14.5 billion as of July 04, 2025. Despite that PKR witnesses slight depreciation. However, market participation declined, with average daily traded volumes…
Despite foreign selling, local investors and stable policy drive Pakistan’s equities up 4pc Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) weathered another volatile month, this time due to the Iran-Israel conflict, before rallying hard to post 4%MoM returns. Daily trading activity was buoyant at US$142 million (ready plus futures). Foreign investors remained sellers, primarily in the consumer staples sector, while local individuals once again showed resilience and added to positions on dips. Other than easing geopolitical concerns, the market was supported by the passage of a market friendly budget. This should lay grounds for improved price performance in the second half of the…
Tight fiscal, monetary discipline and currency stability expected to push inflation down to 4.4pc Continued tight monetary and fiscal policies amid stable currency are expected to moderate inflation further in FY26. Analysts expect inflation to remain at 4.4% in FY26, broadly in line with expectations, driven by a modest increase in the heavily weighted Food and Housing indices amid subdued International commodity prices. PKR is expected to remain stable due to improved external account position driven by elevated remittances and rising exports aided by structural reforms. Inflation to ease further in FY26 Persistent tight monetary and fiscal stances, alongside currency…
Talking to PAGE, Nasib Ahmed Saifi, Chairman, All Pakistan Meat Exporters & Processors Association said that the industry plays two important roles: 1) ensures availability of Halal meat to overseas Pakistanis as well as Muslims living in other countries and 2) earns precious foreign exchange for the country. Please allow me to say, “We are not asking for favours, but request the government to remove the irritant, which often become stumbling blocks.” Saifi said, “Halal meat industry of Pakistan plays a strategically important and religiously significant and economically criticalsector. This industry not only contributes directly to national exports and GDP,…
PSX benchmark index up 3.6%WoW despite unrest in Middle East Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) staged a strong rebound during the week following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. The benchmark index gained 4,356 points or 3.6%WoW to close at record 124,379 points on Friday, June 27, 2025. While the week began on a cautious note due to renewed concerns over regional instability following the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, the ceasefire restored investors’ confidence and triggered a sharp recovery from the second trading day onward. Market participation dropped despite the rally, with average daily traded volume falling to…
Retailers and online marketplaces being formally brought into the tax net to expand revenue The finance minister promised “strategic direction” and the FY26 Budget has a coherent thought process towards that aim. The formal economy — already overtaxed — appears to have been spared, and the overall thrust is towards expanding the tax net by targeting non tax filers and removing exemptions. According to Intermarket Securities, there is relief — albeit minor — for the salaried class and small/ medium corporates, while non-tax filers will face severe impediments in purchasing property and 4-wheelers, as well as retaining bank accounts. Retailers…
Dividend and capital gain tax unchanged, positive for market and investor sentiment overall The government has announced second budget of its tenor with revenues of PKR19.3 trillion and expenditures of PKR25.8 trillion, translating into a deficit of PKR6.5 trillion or 5% of GDP. This suggests, provinces will have to generate surplus of PKR1.5 trillion in FY26 as compared to PKR1 trillion. The Government has also revised its FY25 budget deficit to PKR6.4 trillion or 5.6% of GDP, lowest in 9 years. During last 5 years, average fiscal deficit has clocked in at 7%. Additionally, in line with IMF guidelines, primary…
Index remains bullish amid geopolitical tension Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum during first half of the week. The announcement of Federal Budget was well-received by investors and perceived as broadly positive across most sectors. Optimism was further supported by expectations of a potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for June 16, 2025. The market reached a new all-time high on Wednesday, closing at 124,353 points. However, this momentum waned towards the end of the week due to rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s attack on Iran. Still the benchmark Index closed the week…
Digital tools and banks help formal remittances grow, supporting Pakistan’s fiscal resilience and growth Overseas Pakistanis have significantly increased their remittances in recent years, providing a much needed boost to the country’s economy. In the fiscal year FY24, remittances reached a record US$30.3 billion, marking a 10.7% increase from US$27.3 billion in FY23. A notable highlight was March 2025, when remittances hit an all-time monthly high of US$4.1 billion, reflecting a 37%YoY increase. This surge prompted the State Bank of Pakistan to revise its FY25 remittance target upward from US$35 billion to US$38 billion. The growth in remittances is attributed…
PSX index slips on budget uncertainty, earnings outlook eyed Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range bound during the week, as uncertainty over the upcoming budget moderated investor confidence built on Pak-India ceasefire and the IMF agreement. The benchmark index declined by 546 points or 0.5%WoW to close at 119,103 points on Friday. Market participation also weakened, with average daily traded volumes falling by 25%WoW to 492 million shares, down from 660 million shares a week ago. As regards FY26 Federal budget, revenue target is expected to rise to PKR14.3 trillion from FY25 target of PKR12.3tn. A key highlight includes tariff…
Facing adversity, Pakistan’s insurers innovate continuously, building robust models to empower lasting economic growth The insurance sector in Pakistan has historically faced a challenging environment marked by political instability, economic fluctuations, natural disasters, and a general lack of awareness among the population regarding the importance of insurance. Despite these obstacles, insurance companies in Pakistan have demonstrated notable resilience, adaptability to changing circumstances and gradually expanding their footprint in the economy. Pakistan’s macroeconomic landscape has posed significant hurdles for insurers. Persistent inflation, currency devaluation, and low insurance penetration — estimated below one percent of GDP — have constrained growth. Moreover, frequent…
PSX benchmark index posts 6.08%WoW decline Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) trended negative throughout the week, some recovery was observed during the final trading session. The benchmark index declined by 6,939 points or 6.08%WoW to close at 107,175 level on Friday, May 09 2025. Notably, Thursday saw the largest single-day decline in the index’s history, when the index plunged by 6,482 points or 5.89% amid heightened concerns over regional instability between the two neighboring countries. On Friday the index recovered 3,648 points or 3.52% on the expectation of the approval of a US$1.0 billion tranche under the first review of the…
Pakistan’s stock market and infrastructure sectors boosted by reforms, opportunities and international partnerships Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into Pakistan have shown a notable upward trend in recent years, reflecting growing international interest despite the country facing ongoing economic and political challenges. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), Pakistan succeeded in attracting US$1.9 billion FDI, marking a 17% increase from US$1.62 billion in FY23. April 2024 witnessed a significant surge, with FDI inflows rising to US$358.84 million, a 172%YoY increase and the highest monthly inflow in over four years. Sectoral investments: FDI in Oil & Gas Exploration rose by 120% to…
PSX volatile as geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week ended Friday 25, 2025, as escalating geopolitical tensions post the Pahalgam attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir and India’s subsequent threats to revoke the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan further undermined investor sentiment. The KSE-100 index closed the week at 115,469 points, losing 1,846 points, down 1.57%WoW. Positive news stemmed from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for April 2025, lowering Pakistan’s inflation forecast for FY25 to 5.1%YoY and 7.7%YoY for FY26. On the flip side, growth projection for FY25 was revised slightly downward to…
Country must remain vigilant, agile, and proactive to survive in an increasingly fragmented world The world is undergoing a profound and unsettling transformation. We are entering an era that is increasingly arbitrary, protectionist, and dangerous. Global institutions that once served as pillars of international cooperation are weakening, and long-established norms are rapidly eroding. In this volatile environment, it is imperative that Pakistani policymakers remain fully cognizant of the emerging threats and prepare the nation to navigate the challenges ahead. The shift is not theoretical — it is already underway. US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on a broad…
US tariff hikes unlikely to derail equities market Bulls continued their stampede on the trade floor on Friday, April 04, 2025 at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) surged more than 1,800 points in an all-time high in intraday trade. The benchmark KSE-100 index surged 1,855.30, or 1.56% to 120,793.41. However, by the end of the session, the index reversed its gains and traded in the red. The index declined by 146.45 points, or 0.12% to close the week at 118,938.11. Despite falling global markets, the index crossed the 120,000 barrier in intraday trade amid expectations of better earnings after government…
PSX posts lacklustre movement; awaits key triggers Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed lacklustre sentiments during the week ended on March 14, 2025.Trading activity remained subdued due to Ramadan, with average daily traded volumes plunging to 337 million shares. The week started on a negative note as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to leave the interest rate unchanged, coupled with the IMF raising concern over government’s plan for resolving PKR1.25 trillion circular debt through commercial bank borrowing, kept investors cautious. However, positive developments in ongoing policy-level discussions with IMF improved sentiment during the last two trading sessions, enabling the…
PSX remains volatile throughout the week Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week, with the KSE-100 index closing at 113,252 points, up 0.4%WoW on Friday February 28, 2025. The week started on a positive note, buoyed by initiation of talks for up to US$1.5 billion climate financing from IMF, government proposals for energy tariff cuts and resolving circular debt, and strong corporate results, particularly from banking and cement sector. However, the momentum faded during the latter half of the week due to absence of fresh triggers. On the climate financing front, authorities are discussing the implementation of carbon…
PSX benchmark index records 3.4%WoW decline Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) endured bearish sentiments throughout the week due to a lack of imminent triggers. The benchmark index recorded its second-highest correction of the year in percentage terms, losing 3,933 points or 3.4%WoW to close at 110,323 points on Friday, February 07, 2025. The decline was mainly driven by higher dividend-yielding sectors, including Fertilizer, E&P, and Banks, as stocks prices corrected adjusting their dividend yields in line to rising secondary yields. Notably, in the last T-Bills auction, cutoff yields increased, taking 12-month yields to 11.59%, as investors reacted to a lower-than-expected policy…
SBP Governor urges Easypaisa Bank to focus on SMEs, innovation, and cybersecurity to ensure financial growth In a landmark ceremony held at the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in Karachi, the Governor of central bank Jameel Ahmad, awarded the first Digital Retail Bank (DRB) licence to Easypaisa Bank Limited (formerly Telenor Microfinance Bank Limited), authorizing it to commence commercial operations. The DRB licence to Easypaisa Bank is expected to promote innovation, enhance financial inclusion, and ensure the availability of accessible and affordable digital financial services. The event was attended by CEOs of digital banks, members of the Executive Committee of…
PSX benchmark index records 3.4%WoW decline Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) endured bearish sentiments throughout the week due to a lack of imminent triggers. The benchmark index recorded its second-highest correction of the year in percentage terms, losing 3,933 points or 3.4%WoW to close at 110,323 points on Friday, February 07, 2025. The decline was mainly driven by higher dividend-yielding sectors, including Fertilizer, E&P, and Banks, as stocks prices corrected adjusting their dividend yields in line to rising secondary yields. Notably, in the last T-Bills auction, cutoff yields increased, taking 12-month yields to 11.59%, as investors reacted to a lower-than-expected policy…
Uncertified seeds, waterlogging, postharvest losses and policy failures: Challenges undermining Pakistan’s agricultural potential Ever since Pakistan appeared on world map, people were told that agriculture was the strongest forte, which is misleading because the country has been importing food items worth billions of dollars every year. It is partly because of the shifting focus of policy planners from agriculture to industries to agriculture, incongruent policies, hearted efforts to implement these policies and no linkages between agriculture universities/research institutions and farmers and above all little coordination between the federal and provincial governments. Once upon a time the country had the largest…
PSX index bounces back up 1.8%wow Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed volatility during the week ended on January 17, 2025 due to political uncertainty surrounding the announcement of the graft case involving PTI Chief, Imran Khan. However, following the verdict’s announcement on Friday, market regained momentum, with the benchmark KSE-100 posting a gain of 2,025 points, up 1.8%WoWto close at 115,272 points. Overall, Banks, Power, and Pharma sectors were the primary contributors to the weekly index rally. On the macro front, Pakistan’s current account for December 2024 recorded a surplus of US$582 million, driven by 9%YoY increase in remittances. This brings…
KSE-100 Index surged 84% in 2024, driven by improving macroeconomics and aggressive monetary easing policies According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house — the Topline Securities, the benchmark Index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (KSE100) provided a gain of 84% in PKR terms (87% in US$) in 2024, highest percentage return in 22 years. Previously, index saw high return of 112% in 2002. This above-mentioned return is inclusive of dividends received during this period. Improving macroeconomic indicators under the new IMF programme, i.e. falling inflation, falling yields on fixed income, aggressive monetary easing of 900 bps by the central bank, improving external…
Stable PKR, reform-driven growth, and a promising equity market outlook According to Intermarket Securities, December gains round off a stellar year 2024. The KSE-100 had its best December in the last two decades, rising 14% to bring 2024 gains to 84% in PKR (+86% in US$). Trading activity also remained brisk, with daily turnover averaging US$137 million across the month. Equities were boosted by continued monetary easing, with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reducing the Policy Rate by 200bps to 13%. The resultant valuation expansion, led by aggressive buying by local mutual funds, enabled the market to ignore noisy…
PSX benchmark index up 5.6%wow At Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) positive momentum continued, with the benchmark KSE-100 index posting a weekly gain of 6,236 points or 5.6%WoW and closing at 117,587 points on Friday, January 03, 2025. The rally was led by the Banks, Fertilizers, and Investment & Securities cos. The removal of ADR tax and implementation of additional taxation resolved uncertainty over the taxation regime, fostered optimism as banks would shift focus toward deposit growth. Higher dividend expectations from fertilizer stocks and ongoing restructuring further bolstered investors’ confidence. On the macro front, inflation eased to a 7-year low of…
PSX recorded 7 IPOs raising PKR8.4 billion, oversubscribed offerings driven by macroeconomic stability and liquidity Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) recorded an increase in offerings in 2024, with the bourse witnessing 7 IPOs (including 2 GEM Board offerings), compared to just one IPO in the previous year. The total amount raised from investors through the 7 offerings in 2024 amounted PKR8.4 billion, marking the highest level since 2021, when there were 8 offerings that raised a total of PKR19.9 billion. The market saw immense enthusiasm in these offerings during the year as all of these were oversubscribed. Topline Securities terms this…
National Refinery (NRL) incurred PKR15.8bn losses, PRL posted PKR4.1bn profits and ATRL’s profit declined to PKR25.2bn, citing operational hurdles, declining GRMs and policy challenges National Refinery (NRL) held its corporate briefing session to discuss FY24 financial results and provide insights on the future outlook. Key takeaway are as follows: For FY24, NRL earned a revenue of PKR308.8 billion, a 3.4%YoY increase, but incurred a second consecutive loss of PKR15.8 billion (LPS: PKR197.5) as compared to a LAT of PKR4.5 billion (LPS: PKR55.8) for FY23. Through revamp of fuel and lube-I refinery, the Company has boosted its crude oil processing capacity…
Bank empowers farmers through innovative agri financing, promoting sustainability and uplifting Pakistan’s economy with transformative strategies Interview with Sarfraz Hussain — Head Agri Credit Division, Bank of Punjab PROFILE Sarfraz Hussain is a seasoned banker with over 23 years proven track record of success and delivery. He carries with him diversified exposure in Agriculture, SME Banking and Credit Administration with leading commercial banks of Pakistan. He is currently associated with The Bank of Punjab (BOP) as Head Agri Credit Division for last 6 years. Holds M. Phil degree in Agri Economics from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. There are several…
PSX benchmark index up 5%WoW Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), despite experiencing volatility recorded a hefty increase of 5,248 points in benchmark index. Market closed at another high of 114,302 points, marking an increase of 5%WoW on Friday, December 13, 2024. With the CPI remaining below the 5% threshold and T-Bills yields in the recent auction dropping to 12% for the 3-months and 6-months paper, down 100bps and 89bps respectively, investors’ optimism has been bolstered, fueling expectations for continued monetary easing in the upcoming (MPC) meeting scheduled for December 16, 2024. The news about potential imposition of additional tax on banks…
Lately, Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE) has been creating records on daily basis. During the past week ended on December 06, 2024 the benchmark index, registered its highest ever weekly point gains of 7,697 and market closed at a record high of 109,054 points, up 7.6%WoW. The bullish momentum was fueled by inflation recorded at 4.9%YoY, lowest in nearly six and half years, fueling expectations for continued monetary easing in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee scheduled for December 16, 2024. During the week under review, major contributing sectors to this rally were commercial banks, followed by Fertiliser, and Oil & Gas…
PSX benchmark index up 7.6pc wow Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum throughout the week, leading to a major increase in the benchmark index, registering its highest ever weekly point gains of 7,697 and market closed at a record high of 109,054 points, up 7.6%WoW on Friday, December 06, 2024. The bullish momentum was fueled by November 2024 inflation recorded at 4.9%YoY, lowest in nearly six and half years, fueling expectations for continued monetary easing in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee scheduled for December 16, 2024. Major contributing sectors to this rally were commercial banks, followed by Fertilizer,…
As court suspends tax on ADR shortfall, banks turn to low-interest lending to meet December 2024 deadline According to media reports, Islamabad High Court has temporarily barred the government from collecting an additional tax of up to 15% from commercial banks, as about a dozen financial institutions approached the court to suspend the tax, they were liable to pay after failing to meet the mandatory private sector lending targets in the outgoing year 2024. The average advance-to-deposit ratio (ADR) of the banks operating in Pakistan recently stood at 38%, significantly lower than the mandatory 50%. Accordingly, banks were projected to…
Cement sector is heavily leveraged as well as energy intensive. The recent reduction in policy rate and the decline in global oil prices bodes well for the sector. First quarter results are expected with some pleasant surprises for investors. However, this may not translate into any reduction is cement price or increase in dividend payout. Lucky Cement (LUCK) is expected to post unconsolidated earnings of PKR5.6 billion (EPS: PKR19.1) for 1QFY25 as against PKR6.9 billion (EPS: PkR23.6) for the same period last year, reflecting a decline of 13%YoY. The decline is primarily attributed to lower gross margins, which are expected…
MLCF is also taking interest, FFC has upper hand to take possession of Mianwali based firm Fauji Fertiliser (FFC) has expressed its intention to acquire controlling interest in Agritech (AGL), a fertiliser plant located at Mianwali, Punjab. This marks FFC’s second announcement to expand its fertiliser footprint following the announcement to amalgamate Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim (FFBL) through a share swap (FFBL is an associate company in which FFC owns 49.88%). If FFC acquires AGL, it will also expand FFC’s footprint in the northern region of Pakistan. It may also be recalled that Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF) had also announced to…
PSX benchmark index records highest-ever mark Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) maintained its bullish momentum throughout the week ended on November 15, 2024, with the benchmark index closing at a record high 94,763 points, marking a 1.6%WoW increase, achieving its highest-ever closing. The bullish momentum continues on the back of accelerated pace of monetary easing by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and IMF’s visit with a focus on structural reforms. During the visit, the IMF mission held discussions with local authorities, focusing on the external financing gap and the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) revenue collections. FBR officials assured the IMF…
AKD Banking universe is set to announce its 3QCY24 results. The brokerage house expects profit to increase by 3%YoY to PKR94.4 billion as shrinking NIMs and high provisioning cost to be overshadowed by higher non-core income and growth in investment book. The brokerage house expects yields on investment to decline slightly despite significant drop in secondary market yields during 2QCY24, as bank’s locked in T-Bills at higher rates, particularly in a 12-Months tenure. Strong non-markup income on the back of gain on sale of securities due to declining secondary market yields along with higher fee and dividend income would offset…
PSX witnesses 16.5%WoW decline in average daily trading volume Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile during the week, with the benchmark index losing 233 points or 0.3WoW to close at 85,250 points on Friday, October 18, 2024. Commercial Banks and Power sectors were the primary drags on the index, as concerns over additional ADR-based taxation to weigh on banks’ expected profitability for the last quarter, while continued government scrutiny on IPPs added pressure to the Power sector. Fertilizer sector also remained laggard due to lower than expected payouts by EFERT. On the political front, the successful conclusion of the SCO…
There is no denying to the fact that commercial banks in Pakistan have been posting substantial profit when the interest rates were high. However, with the commencement of decline in interest rate banks’ profit is likely to come under pressure. Along with this banks are also anticipated to witness erosion in deposits as the depositors will switchover their investment in other high yielding options. In the high interest environment banks were investing colossal amounts in risk-free government securities. The added advantage was no fear of non-performing loans and no need for provisioning for delinquent loans. The first and hard below…
PSX benchmark index up 2.76%WoW Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum throughout the week ended on October 04 2024. With expectation of further interest rate cut and IMF’s EFF approval the benchmark KSE-100 index gained 2,240 points or 2.76%WoW to close at 83,532 points. Overall, the bullish sentiments were driven by high dividend yielding sectors that included Fertilizers and E&P, as falling fixed-income yields led to a rerating of these sectors. CPI dropped down 6.93%YoY in September 2024 since January 2021. Additionally, in the auction held on October 02, the yields for the 6-month and 12-month T-Bills decreased…
* With 42 years of strategic investments focuses on industrial, agricultural and climate-resilient projects and eying future with Shariah-Compliant Financial Solutions “We aim to emerge as a development focused and impact driven boutique DFI in the country”, says Rizwan Sheikh Interview with Mr. Rizwan Sheikh — General Manager and Chief Executive of Saudi Pak Industrial and Agricultural Investment Company Limited (SAPICO) Profile Rizwan Ahmed Sheikh is the General Manager and Chief Executive of Saudi Pak Industrial and Agricultural Investment Company Limited (SAPICO). He is a seasoned business and banking executive with over 25 years of diverse experience in driving business…
PSX hits record high on rate cuts and IMF boost The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) maintained its upward trend, driven by key factors from the previous week, such as an interest rate cut and Pakistan’s inclusion in the IMF executive board agenda. As a result, the benchmark index hit a record high, closing at 82,074 points, gaining 2,741 points, or 3.5% week-on-week (WoW). Overall, the bullish sentiment was predominantly driven by high-dividend-yielding sectors including Banks, E&P, and Fertilizers, as falling fixed-income yields led to a rerating of these sectors. Current account balance for August 2024 posted a surplus of US$75…
Daily Trading Volume up 28.5%WoW The benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange showed signs of weakness earlier in the week since Pakistan was not included in the IMF’s executive board meeting agenda, which led to a weekly loss of 0.4%WoW, closing at 78,488 points. The Government of Pakistan (GoP) has requested Saudi Arabia to increase it’s lending by US$1.5 billion from existing US$5 billion and are also seeking US$4 billion from Middle East based commercial banks to seize the external financing gap. The global rating agency Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s debt ratings to Caa2 from Caa3 which instilled positivity among investors.…
In 77 years of sovereignty, the nation contemplates its complex history of external influence, internal challenges, and the enduring quest for stability and integrity Every year on August 14, Pakistanis celebrate Independence Day, when the British Raj decided to quit the subcontinent after ruling this piece of land and ripping it off as much as they could. Muslims of South Asia passed a resolution on March 23, 1940, for the formation of an independent country. They worked hard under the charismatic leadership of Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah. Pakistan was the first-ever state created on the basis of ‘ideology’ rather than…
PSE posts nominal gains as global concerns ease, remittances surge Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed mixed momentum throughout the week ended on August 09, 2024 to close at 78,570 level with a nominal 0.4%WoW gain. According to a report by AKD Securities, the week began on a turbulent note, primarily due to concerns about global markets following Japan’s interest rate hike. However, a rebound in the E&P sector, spurred by a surprising payout from MARI, revitalising market sentiment in the last two sessions. Investors’ confidence was further strengthened by debt rollover commitments during the week, aligning with IMF prerequisites ahead of…
Since independence Pakistani academic institutions working in the public sector have been following a curriculum, capable of producing ‘dignified clerks only’. Lately, some of the private sector universities have introduced new disciplines, but experts are of the consensus that an entirely new range of subjects have to be introduced to meet the emerging local demand and especially to cater to the overseas markets. Agriculture education should be the topmost priority. Crop yields in Pakistan are below the world average. To improve yield, new verities have to be developed which are resistant to common diseases and capable of giving better yields.…
Pakistan Stock Exchange daily trading volume slips to 18 month low Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced volatility throughout the week ended on August 02, 2024 due to political upheaval, with the average daily traded volume falling to 337 million shares as against 358 million shares a week ago, down 5.9%WoW, marking a low of 18 weeks. The benchmark index closed with a loss of 196 points or 0.25%WoW, to close at 78,226 points on Friday. Despite the 100bps cut announced in policy rate by the central bank on Monday, market sentiment remained skeptical. Trade deficit for July 2024 was reported at…
Most of the equity market analysts are bullish about energy companies listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange. Two of the prime reasons are: 1) high dividend pay outs due to persistently increasing crude oil and gas prices and 2) persistently eroding PKR. However, some other analysts term energy sector one of the most inefficient sectors. The disparity is the opinions needs a little deeper probe to determine its strengths and weaknesses. Exploration and Production (E&P) is one of the largest sub sectors in terms of listed capital as well as high dividend pay-out history. However, it may be said point blank…
An exclusive interview with Muhammad Tariq Haq, Founder and CEO, Energy Solutions (Private) Limited Profile Muhammad Tariq Haq is the Founder and CEO of Energy Solutions (Private) Limited, a leading power generation company in Pakistan. With a BE in Mechanical Engineering from NED University and an MBA in Marketing from IBA, Haq has almost 30 years of experience in the industry. He played a pivotal role in introducing Cummins and Aksa Power Generation to the Pakistani market. Known for his focus on safety, learning, and continuous improvement, Haq is a visionary leader committed to driving growth and innovation in Energy…
Pakistan Stock Exchange closes almost flat The week ended on July 19, 2024 began with the market showing bullish momentum from the outset after Pakistan and IMF reached a staff level agreement for a US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, which instilled optimism amongst investors. Meanwhile the political tensions persist, as government mulls opposition party ban. Consequently, the bullish trend did not sustain throughout the week and the market faced volatility in the last session. Overall the benchmark KSE-100 index closed with a gain of 173 points or 0.22%WoW to close at 80,117 points on Friday. Current Account Deficit…
The FY25 Budget proposals are the initial steps to broaden the tax base in Pakistan (tax to GDP is still a paltry 9%). It raises taxes on some key agriculture inputs (DAP fertiliser and tractors), strives to encourage tax filing, and does attempt to tax retailers and real estate, albeit with question marks over sustainability. The Budget removes a concessionary tax regime for the exporters (barring the services export industry e.g. IT) and introduces hefty punitive measures for non-tax filers, including a restriction on foreign travel. The key positive from the market’s standpoint is that the feared sharp increase in…
Contrary to expectations of change in the treatment of income from capital gain and dividends to normal tax, affecting net returns of the investors, Topline Securities believes the budget FY25 is overall positive for the market as the Government of Pakistan (GoP) has not changed the treatment of CGT to normal tax. Alongside this, the maximum rate of 15% tax on CGT has also remained unchanged (though removed slab benefits on holding for more than a year on the purchase after Jul 01, 2024) for tax filers and tax on dividends has also remained unchanged at 15%. To note, in…
PSX records highest intraday level of 80,000 At the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) trading was reduced to two days due to Eid-ul-Azha holidays. On Friday, June 21, 2024 market witnessed fluctuation as the index momentarily crossed the 80,000 level during intraday trade. On Thursday the benchmark KSE-100 index had closed at an all-time high of almost 78,800 points. On Friday, the market closed at 78,810.49 — maintaining its record high level with a meager rise of nine points. The week before that the market lost ground in the first two days amidst rumours about potential increases in the Capital Gains Tax (CGT)…
Modern infrastructure and reformed policies can transform bumper crops into sustainable prosperity Pakistan has produced bumper crops of rice, maize and wheat so far in 2024, but will not reap benefits because of bad policies, inadequate storage facilities and absence of value addition. Not only the farmers have lost the confidence because of plunging of prices, but it is also feared that over the next couple of years the country may see drastic reduction in production. Many analysts are jubilant that Pakistan succeeded in exporting large quantity of rice, but it was mainly because the Indian government-imposed ban on export…
Index remains under pressure, next IMF plan supportive Pakistan Stock Exchange remained volatile throughout the week, with early correction leading the benchmark index to dip below the psychological barrier of 75,000 points. However, the bulls staged comeback on the last trading day, gaining 1,000 points. Overall, the KSE-100 index ended the week down by 105 points or 0.14%WoW, closing at 75,878 points on May 31, 2024. Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming budget fuelled volatility and profit-taking. With just a week remaining before the budget announcement, concerns have risen over the IMF’s high tax proposals. Reports suggest abolishing all sales tax exemptions,…
Commercial banks in Pakistan surfer from some serious issues that include, high interest rates, concentration in government securities. As a result, the Government of Pakistan has emerged as one of the largest borrowers. It is believed that more than 80% of total investment of banks is in government securities. This on one hand deprives the private sector from borrowing and on the other hand becomes a serious impediment in the growth of the economy. The central bank data showed that outstanding credit to the private sector rose by 0.72%YoY to PKR8.41 trillion in March 2024. On a sequential basis, private…
Bullish momentum likely to continue The pre-budget rally continued throughout the week ended May 17, 2024 with Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index closing at its historic high, as the bears failed to seize control at every turn and investor’s confidence remained high, driving the market to sustained gains. The benchmark index closed at 75,342 points on Friday with a gain of 2,257 points, up 3.09%WoW. The market’s bullish momentum was mainly attributed to recent talks with the IMF proceeding smoothly, without any hiccups. Further, SPI weekly inflation was consistently on downward trend for the past five weeks, indicating a tapering…
Farmers in Pakistan face two opposite problems with reference to the availability of irrigation water: 1) drought-like conditions if rainfall is low and 2) flash floods if rainfall is high. In both cases standing crops are destroyed. Small farmers in Pakistan either use their own money or borrow money from the formal banking system/ informal lenders to purchase seeds, fertilizers and other inputs. When the crop is destroyed, there is no way to recover the loss. In the shipping industry, underwriters developed a system to reduce the losses of those whose goods were carried on ships. Not only did this system improve…
An exclusive interview with Syed Ali Hassan Zaidi, COO, TPL Insurance Profile Syed Ali Hassan Zaidi is a thorough professional with diversified experience of over 15 years. He is currently serving as the Chief Operating Officer for TPL Insurance where he also oversees the Strategy functions with special focus on Insurtech/digital initiatives. Over the years, he has worked on multiple initiatives & projects which has significantly contributed to TPL Insurance securing top position in the industry. Ali has previously worked at Ernst & Young for Pakistan & Dubai offices in the Audit and Assurance function. He also served as Finance…
Volatility persists until budget and IMF talks The trading sessions during the outgoing week remained volatile, primarily due to the aftermath of decision of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to keep interest rates unchanged, coupled with anticipation surrounding inflation readings, which registered at 17.34%YoY for April 2024. The benchmark index closed at 71,902 level on Friday, posting a loss of 840 points or 1.16%WoW decline. The last trading session remained positive with a gain of 1244 points. Other major events included the receipt of a US$1.1 billion tranche following the final review of the IMF’s Stand-by Arrangement, declining fuel…
The automotive industry in Pakistan continues to grapple with a challenging landscape amid elevated interest rates and high inflation. The concerning trend of rising CBU imports persists; they are up 7.8x YoY in 1HFY24. Current industry utilisation stands at approximately 22%. However, demand is expected to gradually rebound with easing inflationary pressures and the onset of monetary easing. Automotive industry sales totaled 9,379 units, posting a decline of 3 %MoM and 1%YoY. This brings 9MFY24 sales to 69,078, reflecting a 38%YoY contraction. Car production also experienced a downturn, dropping by 9 %MoM, potentially indicating weak demand in the coming months.…
Since independence Pakistan has remained an energy-deficient country. After the nationalisation of industries by former Prime Minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the early seventies, the entire energy sector came under the control of the state. Despite the successive governments following deregulation, liberalisation and privatisation energy business is controlled by the state-owned companies. A significantly large part of energy companies is in exploration and production, oil and gas distribution and even refining remains in the public sector. The names include Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum (PPL), Pakistan State Oil Company (PSO), Sui Twins, and Pak Arab Refinery and…
Erratic week ends on highest-ever level During the trading sessions of the week ending on April 19, 2024, the Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced fluctuations. However, it concluded the week on a strong note, with the benchmark index reaching its highest-ever closing at 70,909 points, marking a 0.85% WoW increase from the previous week. The overall trading volume saw a significant rise, with an average of 492.37 million shares traded, reflecting a 43.51% increase WoW compared to the previous week. In total, 2.46 billion shares were traded throughout the week, up from 1.72 billion shares traded in the preceding week. The…
Since the re-launching of Islamic banking in Pakistan nearly a quarter of a century ago, the apex regulator — the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), has been saying that the industry has made significant strides. However, many of the critics say the growth is far from satisfactory. The largest number of listed banks falls in the category of conventional banks. Excluding a couple of Islamic banks, most are too small, suffer from a dearth of asset and liability products and mostly suffer from complacency. Their biggest complaint is that the mindset of the people managing the finances of the Government…
Index moves up 2.84%WoW, profit-taking prevails The week ended on March 29, 2024 witnessed bullish trend at Pakistan Stock Exchange. Overall, the first four trading days cumulatively added around 2,000 points, with the benchmark index closing at 67,005 points, up 2.84%WoW on Friday (March 29), following a slight profit-taking session noted on the last trading day of the week. Positivity loomed over the successful last review of IMF’s SBA, the new incumbent government’s steps and commitment towards reforms. A new tax regime ordered for retailers and wholesalers, piloting initially in major cities, aimed to broaden the tax base. While similar…
Pakistan’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since 1958 has been marked by a complex interplay of financial challenges, strategic manoeuvres, and global assistance, profoundly shaping the nation’s economic trajectory over the decades. Recent data offers a nuanced perspective on Pakistan’s ongoing engagement with the IMF, with significant implications for economic stability. Pakistan ranks fifth in outstanding debt with the IMF, standing at US$7.4 billion, trailing behind Argentina, Egypt, Ukraine and Ecuador. The journey began in 1958 when Pakistan secured its inaugural IMF bailout of US$25,000. The largest-ever loan of US$7.6 billion which was sought in 2008, under the…
There is a growing consensus that large commercial banks prefer to work in certain comfort zones. Top of the list item is investment in totally risk-free government securities i.e. Treasury Bills and Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). This is followed by lending to the blue of the blue-chip companies, which offer substantial deposits. Ironically, microfinance banks also suffer from this herd mentality. Many analysts strongly believe that agriculture has the potential to boost Pakistan’s GDP manifold, but paltry lending to the agriculture sector that too at a high-interest rate and on top of all lack of specific lending guidelines, does not…
Strategic shifts in market priorities Market remained volatile during the week with a sharp correction of 1,700 points mid-week followed by some recovery during the second-last trading session. Overall, the benchmark index lost 977 points or 1.49%WoW to close the week at 64,816 level. With the new cabinet taking oath, progress on the IMF SBA’s second review has begun. The arrival of the IMF team led to the circulation of conditionalities and requests across various economic sectors, most of which indicate long-term reforms and conditions, setting the tone for long-term programmes. Alongside conditions set in the SBA, additional conditions of…
There is a growing consensus that large commercial banks prefer to work in certain comfort zones. Top of the list item is investment in totally risk-free government securities i.e. Treasury Bills and Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). This is followed by lending to the blue of the blue-chip companies, which offer substantial deposits. Ironically, microfinance banks also suffer from this herd mentality. Many analysts strongly believe that agriculture has the potential to boost Pakistan’s GDP manifold, but paltry lending to the agriculture sector that too at a high-interest rate and on top of all lack of specific lending guidelines, does not…
Pakistan Stock Exchange posts lackluster movement The week ended on March 08, 2024 started on a positive note, with the index gaining 1% on the opening day. However, as the week progressed, profit taking activities ensued, losing some of the initial gains. Nonetheless, by the week’s end, the benchmark index managed to maintain an upward momentum, closing at 65,326 points with a gain of 468 points or 0.7%WoW. With new Prime Minister taking office and issuing immediate directives focusing on engaging with the IMF and addressing privatization matters set an initial positive impetus. With new setup in place the IMF…
Index recovers and likely to come round With the political tumult settling, market bounced back and regained the points lost in the previous week. Benchmark index closed the week ended on Friday (February 23) at 62,816 points, up 4.9%WoW. The market had lost 3,000 points a week ago amidst political uncertainty. Overall, week started with the positivity, however exacerbated after Bilawal Bhutto’s announcement of new prime minister and president joint candidates. Similarly, provincial assemblies also began taking shape, with Punjab MPAs taking oaths and the announcement of the Sindh chief minister name. Additionally, healthy corporate earnings and developments on the…
PSE index likely to move up on new govt formation The week ended on February 09, 2024 was short three-day trading, the weight of a momentous event loomed large—the elections. The week began with positive news of possible nods by the IMF on circular debt and power tariff rationalisation plans, as well as a narrowed trade deficit for the month of January. However, uncertainty surrounding the election results on Friday (February 9) shattered the early gains. Contrary to expectations, the initial outcomes largely favoured PTI-backed independent candidates, resulting in the KSE-100 plunging by 2,300 points at the opening, before partially…
easypaisa: Redefining financial landscape of Pakistan In the heart of Pakistan, where nearly 100 million unbanked individuals face limited access to credit, a financial revolution was underway. The traditional commercial banking landscape struggled to provide services to the underprivileged, especially in remote regions. The daunting prospect of establishing brick and mortar branches in these areas was a significant challenge for many banks. However, the inception of easypaisa, emerged as a beacon of change. In 2009, easypaisa made its debut as a peer to peer money transfer service, marking the genesis of a fintech revolution in Pakistan. It went beyond mere…
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have begun to exert a notable influence on global trade, with Yemeni Houthi targeting commercial vessels leading to disruptions in maritime traffic. This development has resulted in a substantial surge in freight charges, as shipping companies opt for longer routes to avoid the Red Sea, consequently impacting various sectors. Additionally, the heightened tensions in the region have the potential to trigger a commodity super-cycle, driven by rising oil prices, contributing to increased inflationary pressures. According to the Topline Securities, the top most commodities that are shipped each year via Red Sea and Suez Canal…
Index edges up, likely to shine under election glare The week unfolded amidst political uncertainties and speculations of election delays, tempering market optimism; however, positive macroeconomic developments provided a counter balance. IMF’s approval of the second tranche of US$700 million on January 11, 2024, injected momentum, drove the KSE100 index to close the week at 64,638 points (up 0.19%WoW) after an initial dip to 64,237 on the first day. While the approval of the IMF’s second tranche was anticipated, the surprise was the absence of any comments on politics or elections. Additionally, a restrained trade deficit of US$1.7 billion in…
The country has the potential to accelerate the GDP growth rate, produce exportable surplus and optimise the cost of production The year 2024 is anticipated to be a good year for Pakistan. Improved relationships with the lender of last resort— the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has paved the way for the inflow of funds from multilateral lenders as well as friendly countries. Hovering of crude oil prices around US$80/barrel, despite the Israel-Hamas war going on for more than three months is likely to keep Pakistan’s energy import bill at a modest and sustainable level. Production of above 7.8 million cotton…
Benchmark index up 3.3%WoW on positive outlook The Year 2024 started optimistically for Pakistan Stock Exchange and its benchmark index surged 2,211 points on the first day. However, political noise cast a shadow, dragged the index 151 points below the week’s first day closing at 64,515 points, up 3.3%WoW to close the week on January 05, 2024. Despite the headwinds, economic factors provided positive signals, foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan rose by US$1.3 billion in last two weeks of December 2023, marking a 23-week high, closing at US$8.22bn as of December 29, 2023 and would potentially…