EIA increases USA oil production forecasts for 2026, 2027
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month.
According to its latest STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.83 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.26 million barrels per day in 2027. In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would come in at 13.80 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.15 million barrels per day in 2027.
Russia cuts natural gas output
Russia’s economy ministry expects the country to produce and export less natural gas this year than previously forecast, according to draft government document seen by Reuters, as Europe prepares to wind up its final Russian gas purchases.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Russia had also downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low and revised the fuel export outlook for this year and next due to the war with Ukraine. The forecasts will be used to update the federal budget to 2029.
Natural gas production and export forecasts have been revised down against the background of ruptured economic and political ties with the West over the Ukraine war and the European Union’s plans to stop all purchases of Russian gas from next year.
According to the draft forecast, natural gas production in Russia this year will amount to 683.1 billion cubic metres, 5.3 bcm below that expected in a May projection, but still above the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025.
Dairy cow numbers, milk production edge higher
U.S. milk production rose about 1.7 percent compared to the same month last year, according to the USDA’s preliminary August Milk Production report, released Sept. 22.
August 2026 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.71 million head, up 167,000 from a year earlier. The trend is similar in the 24 major dairy states, where August 2026 cow numbers were estimated at 9.264 million, also up 151,000 head from August 2025
- U.S. milk production: 19.9 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.71 million, up 167,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,049 pounds, down 1 pound
Iron ore prices rebound past $98
Iron ore prices rose for a third consecutive session last Friday (September 18) to close above US$98 per ton, pushing weekly prices into positive territory with a 0.36 percent gain.
The price of Australia’s 62 percent Fe grade iron ore fines delivered to China increased by US$0.95 to reach US$98.2. Despite Chinese industry initiatives favoring steel output reductions, average daily hot metal production increased by 13,400 tons week on week to reach 2.38 million tons, coupled with pre-holiday inventory restocking by steel mills.
China aims to build a 1.5 trillion Yuan tea industry
China aims to build a 1.5 trillion yuan ($216 billion) tea industry by 2030 under new guidelines issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other agencies to overhaul the sector into a modern, eco-friendly and globally competitive powerhouse.
Issued in February, the guidelines call for the upgrading of the entire tea industry chain and the cultivation of large-scale specialty tea industry clusters.
In 2025, China’s tea industry topped 1 trillion yuan for the first time, according to market data.
Relying primarily on market mechanisms and existing policy tools, the guidelines set targets for 2028, aiming for steady progress in major traditional tea-producing regions and continued improvements in the quality and efficiency of distinctive local tea industries.
By then, the guidelines envision cultivating more than five tea industry clusters each generating over 10 billion yuan in annual revenue, a number of leading enterprises with annual revenue exceeding 5 billion yuan, and a batch of enterprises and regional brands with international influence.
Brazil will have wheat, but will it meet industry quality standards?
Brazil’s 2026 wheat crop is entering a decisive stage. In Paraná, one of the country’s leading wheat-producing states, harvest had reached 46 percent of the planted area as of September 21, according to DERAL/SEAB.
At the same time, crop conditions are showing signs of deterioration that deserve attention: 64 percent of the crop was rated good, 29 percent fair and 7 percent poor.
Among fields that had not yet been harvested, 60 percent were in the maturity stage, 29 percent in grain development, 9 percent in flowering and 2 percent in vegetative development.
With nearly half of the acreage already harvested, the market’s main question is beginning to change. Beyond how much wheat Brazil will produce, what will be the quality of the grain reaching millers and processors?
Italy’s August crude steel output falls 3.5pc yoy
Italy’s crude steel production fell 3.5 percent year on year to 793,000 tons in August 2026, according to Italian steel industry association Federacciai.
Despite the August decline, crude steel production during January-August increased 2.4 percent year on year to 13.993 million tons.
Output trends diverged significantly between long and flat products. Italian long steel production fell 10.2 percent year on year to 395,000 tons in August, although January-August output remained 5.2 percent higher at around 8.4 million tons.
Flat steel production, meanwhile, increased 30.3 percent year on year to 374,000 tons in August. The sharp increase partly reflected a low comparison base after flat-product production fell 31 percent in August 2025. During January-August 2026, flat steel output remained 2.4 percent lower year on year at around 5.7 million tons.
The figures indicate that Italy’s overall steel production weakened in August, with the decline particularly pronounced in long products despite cumulative production remaining above year-earlier levels.