While rice feeds over 50 percent of the world presently international experts recorded, worldwide exports are controlled by a small group of countries. Globally, rice trade in 2025 was valued at almost $29.5 billion, with just a few of the exporting countries making more than to 50 percent of the total. Since most countries depend heavily on these rice-exporting countries, disruption to any one of them can impact food supply chains and rice prices globally. International sources recorded that the trade markets are expected to remain sensitive throughout 2026 because of ongoing conflicts and shifting market conditions. In addition, but growing inflation, food security policy, and climate variability are all influencing trade flows as much as production itself. Export decisions now affect food affordability and supply for entire nations because rice imports are not optional purchases but an essential part of maintaining domestic food supply. Read on to understand which countries are driving rice exports and why it matters for anyone tracking food trade flows, supply chain dependencies, or commodity price risk.
International experts recorded that rice is one of the most politically sensitive food commodities. It’s a dietary staple for many communities, mostly from Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. Even small supply shortages can directly raise household food costs, as many families rely heavily on rice. Unlike luxury goods, the changes in rice trade affect household affordability instantly. When India restricted non-basmati white rice exports in July 2023, worldwide rice prices surged to a 15-year high within weeks. The FAO flagged it as a food security concern. Import dependency for rice is wide and deep. Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s largest rice-importing region. The Philippines is the world’s largest single rice importer. Countries across the Middle East – including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq – import substantial volumes yearly. None of these regions can quickly substitute imports with local production, which is what makes export concentration a genuine risk factor in worldwide food systems.
According to the government of Pakistan officials, rice being the staple food second to wheat and the second largest export commodity after cotton, contributed 0.5 percent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 2.2 percent to agricultural value addition. During FY2025-26, despite 3.6 percent fall in area as against to previous year, the production of rice grew by 2.8 percent to 9.99 million tons from 9.72 million tons. The rise was driven by a 6.6 percent improvement in yield, which stood 2,660 kg/ha, supported by better water availability in main rice growing areas. While monsoon floods initially posed concerns, subsequent assessments showed that the impact on the crop remained limited, with additional water availability supporting crop performance in some areas. The fall in cultivated areas largely reflected farmers’ sowing decisions in response to prevailing rice prices and alternative crop options.
Sources recorded that our country presently expects to export hybrid non-basmati rice to China amounting to about 600,000 metric tons in 2026, registering that Beijing’s move to impose restrictions on some Indian exporters for using harmful fertilizers has created latest opportunities for Pakistan.
No doubt our country is one of the leading rice exporters globally, exporting nearly 6 million metric tons of rice worth over $3.3 billion last year, as per statistics from the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP). China buys a large amount of Pakistan’s non-basmati rice, as Pakistan grows hybrid rice using seeds that are often imported from China.
Statistics showed that China’s total rice imports stood 5 million metric tons for FY2026 valued at $2,199 million, as per data shared by Pakistan’s Commerce Ministry. Pakistan contributed 456,359 metric tons of that rice, which was worth $162 million. It Is said that China has presently imposed non-tariff barriers and restrictions on various Indian exporters because of compliance and fertilizer/pesticide residue problems. This has creating a notable supply gap in the Chinese market, which Pakistani exporters hoped to fill. The new deals and surging Chinese demand are paving the way for us to easily surpass 500,000 to 600,000 metric tons of rice exports by December. Potentially pushing total trade figures up to record levels. Furthermore, China revoked the import licenses of three Indian rice exporters after Chinese customs authorities rejected their consignments, claiming traces of genetically modified organisms.
Last month, a Pakistani REAP delegation visited China to explore opportunities to improve rice exports to the neighboring country. It is said that during their business-to-business (B2B) engagements with major Chinese importers, grain groups and chambers of commerce, the delegation successfully finalized orders and agreements for 60,000 metric tons of rice. Statistics showed that Pakistan can export up to $1.5 billion worth of hybrid rice to China amid decreasing rice trade with India. It is said that China imports rice from various countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. So, restrictions on India would not create a demand for rice worth $1.5 billion, adding that Pakistan is trying to increase its rice exports by offering better quality and competitive pricing. Pakistan can export rice to China worth $400 to $500 million. It is registered that Pakistan enjoys an advantage over other countries as it produces hybrid rice that is preferred in China. Almost 60 percent of non-basmati rice cultivated in Pakistan is of hybrid variety as experts import the seed from China. So, experts produce the variety that is consumed in China. No doubt Pakistan has surplus rice available for export to China, it is emphasized that public-private collaboration is key to organizing contractual frameworks with Chinese importers, improving seed quality and certification protocols, and rigorously complying with China’s stringent food safety and pesticide residue regulations.