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All indicators point towards a reduction in international prices

All indicators point towards a reduction in international prices

Interview with Mr. Mohammad Wasi Khan, former Chairman of the Board and CEO of Cnergyico Pk Limited


Profile:

Mohammad Wasi Khan is an independent consultant in the oil and energy sector, advising clients across Pakistan and the broader region on downstream oil strategy, refinery upgrades, trading dynamics, and

energy transition opportunities. With over four decades of industry experience, he has held senior leadership positions across refining, oil marketing, trading, and infrastructure development. He previously served as Chairman of the Board

and CEO of Cnergyico Pk Limited. Prior to that, he spent 25 years at National Refinery Limited (NRL), where he served as Deputy Managing Director. Mr. Khan has led several major expansions, infrastructure projects, and operational improvements. A number of growth-oriented initiatives and strategic developments stand to his credit, reflecting his longstanding commitment to advancing Pakistan’s downstream oil sector.


PAGE: What is your perspective about oil prices in Pakistan after the peace agreement between Iran and the USA?

Mohammad Wasi Khan: A sustained Iran-US agreement could ease global oil supply concerns, putting downward pressure on international prices. Further, any relaxation of sanctions on Iran could also bring additional supply to the market. At the same time, evolving dynamics within OPEC, particularly after the UAE’s exit on underlying past differences over quotas, may lead to increased market share competition in the Gulf region, further softening prices over time. All indicators point towards a reduction in international prices, however, this benefit may not fully translate into domestic relief in Pakistan. Petroleum pricing has increasingly become a significant source of government revenue and remains influenced by fiscal elements such as the Petroleum Levy, in addition to exchange rate movements. More importantly, recent geopolitical events highlight Pakistan’s vulnerability to external shocks. In this context, the absence of Strategic Petroleum Reserves remains a critical gap, as such reserves provide a strategic buffer to manage supply disruptions and ensure continuity during crises.

PAGE: How would you comment on the energy policy of Pakistan?

Mohammad Wasi Khan: There has been some progress in Pakistan’s energy policy towards diversification; however, structural challenges remain, including circular debt, pricing distortions, and lack of integrated planning across sectors. A positive recent development is the sales tax exemption on refinery upgradation machinery announced in the budget, which supports the implementation of the Brownfield Refinery Policy. This can enable investment in conversion units and enhance overall efficiency of the refining sector. A critical missing element in Pakistan’s energy framework is Strategic Petroleum Reserves. In today’s environment, reserves are not merely storage, they are a strategic buffer that provide time and flexibility in managing supply disruptions. Recent global developments have reinforced that energy security is as important as affordability and efficiency. Going forward, policy consistency, regulatory clarity, and a genuinely integrated energy framework will be critical to attract long-term investment.

PAGE: Where do you see Pakistan in terms of using alternative energy resources?

Mohammad Wasi Khan: Pakistan is witnessing rapid growth in alternative energy, particularly solar. A notable trend is the sharp increase in self-funded rooftop solar installations by households and commercial users though thanks largely to very high grid electricity tariffs. This distributed adoption is already impacting grid demand patterns. At the same time, the power sector faces the structural challenge of take-or-pay obligations under IPPs, which create financial pressure even when demand shifts away from the grid. Over the medium term, alternative energy will become a significant part of the energy mix. However, this transition will require grid stability mechanisms, energy storage solutions, and transmission upgrades to balance supply and demand effectively.

PAGE: What structural reforms are most critical for Pakistan’s downstream oil sector?

Mohammad Wasi Khan: Pakistan’s downstream sector requires a shift from short-term administrative controls to a stable, market-aligned framework. Key reforms include ensuring a level playing field, curbing smuggling, incentivizing refinery upgrades, and aligning import policies with domestic refining capacity. Deregulation remains important, but deregulation without digitalization, regulatory oversight, and a coordinated supply chain can create distortions rather than efficiency. Priority should also be given to maximizing local resource utilization first, with imports only to meet deficits, along with dismantling distortionary mechanisms such as IFEM that blur true market signals. Most importantly, the sector needs predictable pricing and margin mechanisms that allow refineries and OMCs to operate viably while encouraging efficiency and long-term investment.

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