- Pakistan aims GDP growth 4.2–5.7pc, increasing national economy, exports and remittances over three years
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026, as higher tariffs and ongoing policy uncertainty slow down investment and trade. Statistics showed that in the United States, growth is projected to decline sharply from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026 owing to higher tariff rates, moderating net immigration and reductions in the federal government workforce. China also sees a notable growth deceleration, from 4.9 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2026, as front-loading unwinds, higher tariffs take effect and fiscal support fades; while the euro area GDP growth experiences a smaller but steady slowdown, from 1.2 percent in 2025 to 1.0 percent in 2026 with increased trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainty somewhat offset by stronger public investment and easier credit conditions.
| Quarterly GDP Of Pakistan (at constant basic prices of 2015-16) (Rs. Million) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. No. | Sector/ Industry | 2024-25 | |||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||
| A. | Agriculture Sector | 2,483,126 | 2,413,880 | 2,398,776 | 2,398,127 |
| B. | Industrial Sector | 1,751,065 | 1,792,051 | 1,836,691 | 2,040,262 |
| Commodity Producing Sector (A+B) | 4,234,191 | 4,205,931 | 4,235,467 | 4,438,389 | |
| C | Services Sector | 5,856,832 | 5,975,439 | 6,065,611 | 5,958,594 |
| D. | Total of GVA (A+B+C) | 10,091,023 | 10,181,370 | 10,301,077 | 10,396,983 |
| Net Taxes | 587,455 | 684,174 | 624,874 | 725,576 | |
| E | GDP at mp (GVA+NT) | 10,678,478 | 10,865,544 | 10,925,951 | 11,122,559 |
| Net Primary Income (NPI) | 1,024,151 | 912,387 | 1,143,456 | 1,064,841 | |
| F | Gross National Income | 11,702,629 | 11,777,931 | 12,069,407 | 12,187,400 |
| Q1: July – September, Q2: October – December, Q3: January – March, Q4: April- June | |||||
| GVA: Gross Value Added, mp: Market Prices | |||||
On the other hand, inflation in most G20 economies is projected to decline as economic growth and labour markets continue to soften. Headline inflation is expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.9 percent in 2026, while core inflation in advanced G20 economies remains broadly stable, easing only slightly from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent. However, inflationary pressures could resurface. The pace of disinflation has slowed in some economies, with goods prices edging higher and services inflation remaining stubborn. In the developing countries like Pakistan presently for the next 3-year, the federal government of Pakistan has set ambitious economic targets, aiming to raise the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate to between 4.2 percent and 5.7 percent. Other targets include growing the size of the national economy to Rs 162,513 billion, increasing exports by greater than $10 billion, and increasing remittances to a record $44.82 billion.
According to the three-year macroeconomic and fiscal framework issued by the Ministry of Finance, it is projected that that Pakistan’s exports will rise from $44.83 billion to $55 billion over the next three years — an increase of greater than $10 billion. Exports of goods are forecast to stand $42.69 billion, while exports of services, including information technology, are estimated at $12.24 billion. For the current financial year, statistics showed that the export of goods is estimated at $35.28 billion, with services exports projected at $8.38 billion. Imports are expected to rise by $14.5 billion, reaching $79.71 billion.
Remittances are projected to hit a record $44.82 billion in three years, as against with $39.43 billion expected during the current fiscal year. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economic growth rate at 3.6 percent for the current fiscal year. Contrary to the forecast of 3.6 percent economic growth, experts have recorded that during last week’s inconclusive discussions, the IMF staff had projected 3 percent to 3.5 percent growth.
Furthermore, the Government of Pakistan has already downward adjusted its 4.2 percent ambitious target to 3.5 percent while the World Bank has made a forecast of 2.6 percent for the same reason. Experts also recorded that even in the medium term, the IMF was not projecting more than a 4.5 percent economic growth rate for Pakistan, that too is hinging upon the support from any meaningful increase in exports and investment. It is believed that the IMF is expected to approve the third installment of $1 billion for Pakistan under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program during its meeting scheduled for December. The Fund is also likely to provide $200 million under climate financing, which will be made available through the Climate Resilience Financing mechanism. Despite facing considerable domestic and external challenges, Pakistan’s economy has maintained a path of gradual stabilization during FY 2025.