Maldivian economy growing at a good pace
President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu has stated that the Maldivian economy is growing at a good pace and that the administration will begin a project to build an additional 3,000 housing units in Male’.
After a hiatus, administrative party PNC conducted a rally last night, where President Muizzu announced that an additional 3,000 housing units will be built outside the current 4,000 housing unit project. The 4,000 housing units will be built with funding under India’s line of credit.
“Thankfully, everything [regarding building of the 3,000 housing units] is going well. One of my most important pledges to the people is housing. The plots and flats that have been given to you as part of my pledge are still ongoing, and we will continue to do so without any changes,” said President Muizzu during the rally to a crowd of supporters.
While speaking at PNC’s main camp, President Muizzu said that all his pledges are being brought to fruition with the help of the administration and PNC supporters. He gestured to the fact that plenty of projects have begun in various parts of the country.
Mongolia’s economic growth is sustained
Mongolia’s economic growth is expected to be driven this year by a recovery in livestock numbers and the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine. However, weaker coal exports and reduced government spending have led the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to lower its growth forecast.
According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025 report, ADB projects Mongolia’s economic growth at 5.7 percent in both 2025 and 2026, down from April’s forecasts of 6.6 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Demand for Mongolia’s export minerals, especially coking coal, is expected to remain weak in 2025–2026 due to higher tariffs and trade restrictions affecting steel production in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In addition, recent government spending cuts are likely to dampen consumption and public investment for the rest of 2025.
“Despite heightened global uncertainties, economic growth in Mongolia remains robust,” said ADB Country Director for Mongolia Shannon Cowlin. “It is now even more critical to foster broad-based and diversified growth, while addressing vulnerabilities linked to mineral dependence and commodity market volatility.”
Mongolia’s economic growth remained robust in the first half of 2025, largely driven by a recovery in herd size under favorable weather conditions.
India’s economy is stronger?
India has long benefited from geopolitical arbitrage, maintaining working relationships with Russia, the United States, and Europe. But this delicate balancing act is now being tested by a series of policy shocks delivered by US President Donald Trump’s administration. These disruptions, unlikely to ease anytime soon, raise a critical question: Can India retain its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy?
The most urgent challenge facing Indian policymakers is weathering the escalating trade war. In August, Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on Indian imports, citing the need to reduce India’s trade surplus with the US and punish the country for its massive purchases of Russian oil. Adding to the pressure, Trump has urged the European Union and other G7 countries to take even harsher steps – namely, to impose a 100 percent tariff on imports from India and China.
Trump’s decision to hike H-1B visa fees to $100,000 represents yet another blow to India’s economy, particularly its IT services industry – one of the country’s most dynamic growth engines. Currently, Indian nationals account for more than 70 percent of all H-1B holders, with most of them working in IT or technology-related sectors. Given this, it’s hardly surprising that the share prices of Indian companies like Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Wipro, which rely heavily on H-1B visas to access the US market, declined following Trump’s announcement.
While Trump has labeled India a “dead economy,” it is unclear whether he meant this as a statement of fact or a threat he will make good unless India offers sufficient concessions in its trade negotiations with the US. Either way, there is little evidence to suggest the Indian economy is at risk of collapsing anytime soon.
China’s industrial policy, a review
China’s industrial policy is not well understood. The fiscal price tag, highlighted in the latest IMF report that Alphaville covered on Tuesday, is eye-poppingly large at around 4.4 percent of GDP. And the Fund reckons it costs the country a further 2 percent points of GDP each year in lost productivity.
The impact of Chinese industrial policy on the world economy is so large that Donald Trump’s tariffs are, by comparison, a minor nuisance. America’s roughly 8 percent share of world imports is less than half of China’s share of world exports. And the industrial policy-export nexus is not only aggravating China’s own domestic systemic problems, but becoming increasingly problematic for a growing number of countries.
The economist Barry Naughton, renowned guru of Chinese industrial policy, has described China as being engaged in ‘the greatest single commitment of government resources to an industrial policy objective in history.’ Other estimates as to the measurable cost of Chinese industrial policy have been made by the OECD, the CSIS, and the Kiel Institute. Ballpark — these come to around 1.5-2 percent of GDP, or 4-5 times that of large OECD countries.
The IMF report has more than doubled this, but even so there is much that is hard to quantify, and more that is impossible to get a handle on.
Malaysia maintains economic stability
Supported by key sectors, the country’s growth was underpinned by services and manufacturing, while on the demand side, private consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) were the main drivers.
Stable domestic demand and resilient key sectors have helped drive Malaysia’s economic growth in 2025, even as the country navigates global challenges and ongoing external trade fluctuations, as revealed in the Department of Statistics’ Malaysian Economic Statistics Review (MESR), Volume 9/2025 on 30 September 2025.
Governor offers upbeat view on business mood, profits
Japanese business mood is improving and corporate profits remain high even as U.S. tariffs weigh on exports, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said, signalling confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike was falling into place.
Uchida reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts, though it would scrutinise data without any pre-set idea.
“Judging from our tankan survey, corporate sentiment is positive overall with manufacturers’ sentiment improving on the view Japan’s trade agreement with the U.S. has reduced uncertainty,” Uchida said in a speech to an annual meeting of securities firms on Thursday.
While some manufacturers are experiencing a hit to their profits from U.S. tariffs, corporate revenues remain at high levels overall, he added.
The remarks came in the wake of Wednesday’s tankan quarterly survey that showed confidence among big Japanese manufacturers improved for the second straight quarter.
Market players have been closely watching Uchida’s comments for any clues on how soon the BOJ will resume a rate-hike cycle that has been paused due to uncertainty over the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs.
A hawkish board split at the BOJ’s September meeting and calls for a near-term rate hike by a dovish policymaker have led markets to price in over a 60 percent chance the bank will hike rates to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent at its next policy meeting on October 29-30.
“Uchida’s comments about receding uncertainty over U.S. tariffs show the BOJ is heading in the direction of further rate hikes,” said Takeshi Ishida, a strategist at Kansai Mirai Bank.
“But there were no clear hints, so it’s hard to judge the timing of the next rate hike just from these comments,” he said.
Uchida said Japan’s economy was improving moderately with underlying inflation expected to re-accelerate after a brief period of stagnation.
Indonesia’s economic package
The Indonesian government recently announced a bold economic package of fiscal incentives and social support aimed at easing household pressures, supporting small businesses, and stimulating growth. The plan includes food aid, internships for graduates, tax breaks for micro and small enterprises, and a 200 trillion rupiah ($11.9 billion) injection into state banks to fund cooperative lending.
While this package will offer short-term relief, questions remain about its long-term impact. Can it boost demand, attract investment, and build sustainable growth – or will it create new risks for Indonesia’s economy?
The package seems initially aimed at providing short-term relief for the Indonesian public. More than 18 million households will receive rice aid, graduates will gain access to 20,000 paid internships, and small businesses will enjoy a continued low tax rate. Cash-for-work programs are also expected to employ hundreds of thousands of people in infrastructure projects. Together, the initiatives and support provide relief to struggling households and show that the government is willing to step in quickly when pressure builds on the ordinary Indonesian.
In addition to the 200 trillion rupiah injection into the state banking sector, the incentives and support under the package include a 16.23 trillion rupiah ($968 million) stimulus package announced for late 2025–2026; the distribution of 10 kilograms of rice to 18.3 million households in October and November 2025; the creation of an expected 600,000 jobs through cash-for-work programs; the creation of 20,000 internships for university graduates; the extension of a special 0.5 percent tax rate for small businesses until 2029; and the earmarking of 870,000 hectares for replanting projects that could create 1.6 million jobs.
Philippine GDP seen on a steady growth path
Robust domestic demand amid subdued inflation will support Philippine economic growth this year and the next, according to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025 report, ADB forecasts the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.6 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2026, steady from last year’s 5.7 percent growth.
The 2025 GDP projection was maintained from the July ADO forecast, while the 2026 growth estimate was slightly lower from 5.8 percent in July. Still, the Philippines is forecast to remain a bright spot in Southeast Asia, with the second highest GDP expansion in the region.
“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” said ADB Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries. “Though these uncertainties pose increased risk, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion.”
ADB forecasts inflation to ease more this year than earlier projected, slowing to 1.8 percent before rising to 3.0 percent in 2026 to return to the government’s target range of 2 percent to 4 percent. The latest 2025 inflation forecast is lower from July’s 2.2 percent. Slower global commodity prices and muted food prices, in part due to the improved local supply of the country’s rice staple, will keep inflation low. This subdued inflation outlook will support an accommodative monetary policy, the report said.