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Pakistan’s external trade in statistics

Pakistan’s external trade in statistics

Based on the provisional figures of imports and exports compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the balance of trade in September, 2023 was (-) 451,872 million in terms of Rupees and (-) 1,518 million in US dollars. The Balance of trade figures cumulative from July-September, 2023/FY2023-24 were recorded (-) 1,547,230 million in terms of Rupees and (-) 5,317 million in US dollars.

According to the provisional figures compiled by PBS, exports from Pakistan during September, 2023 worth to Rs.737,295 million (provisional) as compared to Rs. 695,136 million in August, 2023 and Rs. 561,643 million during September, 2022 explaining a rise of 6.06 percent over August, 2023 and by 31.27 per cent over September, 2022. In terms of US dollars the exports in September, 2023 were recorded $ 2,476 million (provisional) as against to $ 2,366 million in August, 2023 explaining a rise of 4.65 per cent and by 1.60 per cent as against to $ 2,437 million in September, 2022.

Exports during July-September FY2023-24 totaled Rs. 2,013,533 million (provisional) as against Rs.1,603,869 million during the corresponding period of last year explaining a rise of 25.54 per cent. In terms of US dollars the exports during July-September FY2023-24 totaled $6,910 million (provisional) as against $7,170 million during the same period of previous year explaining a decline of 3.63 per cent. Main commodities of exports during September, 2023 were recorded knitwear (Rs. 103,029 million), readymade garments (Rs. 74,608 million), bed wear (Rs. 69,234 million), cotton cloth (Rs. 51,891 million), oil seeds, nuts and kernals (Rs.46,571 million), cotton yarn (Rs.33,815 million), rice others (Rs.32,324 million), towels (Rs.25,116 million), rice basmati (Rs.19,008 million) and madeup articles (Rs.16,922 million).

On the other hand PBS also recorded that imports into Pakistan during September, 2023 amounted to Rs. 1,189,167 million (provisional) as compared to Rs. 1,330,458 million in August, 2023 and Rs. 1,219,956 million during September, 2022 showing a decline of 10.62 percent over August, 2023 and by 2.52 percent over September, 2022. In terms of US dollars the imports in September, 2023 were recorded $ 3,994 million (provisional) as against to $ 4,528 million in August, 2023 explaining a decline of 11.79 per cent and by 24.54 percent as against to $ 5,293 million in September, 2022. Imports during July-September FY2023-24 totaled Rs. 3,560,763 million (provisional) as compared to Rs. 3,650,269 million during the same period of previous year explaining a decline of 2.45 per cent. In terms of US dollars the imports during July-September FY2023-24 totaled $ 12,227 million (provisional) as compared to $16,329 million during the same period of last year explaining a decline of 25.12 per cent.

Main commodities of imports during September, 2023 were registered petroleum products (Rs. 162,087 million), petroleum crude (Rs.146,179 million), natural gas, liquified (Rs.75,331 million), palm oil (Rs. 61,388 million), plastic materials (Rs. 49,628 million), electric machinery & apparatus (Rs.44,699 million), Iron & steel (Rs.44,191 million), mobile phones (Rs.37,093 million), iron & steel scrap (Rs.27,299 million) and pulses (leguminous vegetables) (Rs.22,208 million).

Future forecast

In 2023 the World Trade Organisation (WTO) halved its growth forecast for global goods trade, saying that persistent inflation, higher interest rates, a strained Chinese property market and the war in Ukraine had cast a shadow over its viewpoint.

International experts mentioned presently that the merchandise trade volumes would increase by just 0.8 per cent in 2023, compared with its April estimate of 1.7 per cent. For 2024, experts said goods trade growth would pick up to 3.3 per cent, a forecast virtually unchanged from its April estimate of 3.2 per cent. The trade slowdown was broad-based, involving a larger number of countries and goods, though mainly iron and steel, office and telecoms equipment, textiles and clothing. It is recorded that the global tension is a major hurdle to increase the global trade. The share of intermediate goods in world trade, an indicator of global supply chain activity, declined to 48.5 per cent in the first half of 2023, as against to an average of 51.0 per cent over the last 3 years.

Experts mentioned that it was not clear if the fall was because of geopolitical tensions or the general economic slowdown. The Expected slowdown of trade was a cause for concern because it could depress the living standards of people globally mainly in poor states. The WTO’s forecast does not cover services, but the WTO mentioned growth was moderating after a strong rebound in international tourism in 2022. Worldwide commercial services trade grew 9 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, down from 19 per cent in the second quarter of 2022.

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