Market up 520 points over IMF deal optimism
Summary
The visit of the new Finance Minister Miftah Ismail to Washington on Sunday brought the good chances that the IMF will grant Islamabad ‘s request to extend its ongoing loan program for a year to September 2023 and boosts its funding by $2 billion to $8 billion to help ease Pakistan ‘s balance of payment difficulties. The details of the program will be worked out in May. The market gained 520.23 points on Monday on the news of IMF deal.
Due to long closure of market and the fact that the yield of treasury bills hitting a 24-year high on Thursday with indication of rate hike in future, the market remained bearish.
The benchmark KSE-100 Index lost 304 points and closed at 45,249.41. Trading activities also improved and average volume was 282m. The market capitalization lost Rs.89 billion and closed at Rs.7,519T.
Monday: KSE-100 index 46,073.25 Change (+520.23) Vol 369 m Mkt.Cap Rs.7,676 T
Tuesday: KSE-100 index 45,817.68 Change (-255.57) Vol 210m Mkt.Capt Rs.7,7631 T
Wednesday: KSE-100 index 45,533.30 Change (-284.38) Vol 219m Mkt.Capt.Rs.7,575T
Thursday: KSE-100 index 45,249.41 Change (-283..89) Vol 326 m Mkt. Capt. Rs7.519 T
Friday: Holiday
Participants /Activity
Foreigners were net buyer $3.18m during the week; companies were buyers 2.97m, Banks were seller $2.93m; Mutual fund net seller $4.85m individuals net buyer $5.8m and Insurance were seller$ 6.71m.
Volume leaders during the week were: Cnergyico Pk 99m; Hum Network 88m; WTL 81 m; G3 Technologies 55m; Tele Card 55m; Pak Refinery 39; Pak Electron 24m; Ghani Gio Hold 22m and Lotte Chemical 18m.
Participants: Co 330; Gain 115; Loss 195 and Unchanged 20.
Triggers
— After an unexpected increase of up to 129 basis points by the government on Wednesday auction, the cut-off yields in treasury bills hit a 22-year high reaching a large room for further hike in SBP policy rate.
— Minister of State for Finance Aisha Ghaus Pasha said on Wednesday that Pakistan and the IMF have started their technical level talks for an enhanced financial package.
— IMF has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth to moderate from 5.6 per cent in 2021 to 4 per cent in 2022 and consumer price inflation to go up from 8.9 per cent in 2021 to 11.2 in 2022.
Conclusion
According to Waqar Masood Khan, noted economist, “Now the new government, many times bitten by neo liberal IMF program and which in the opposition a month ago had the opposite view, is once again accepting the three billion dollars over the next twelve month or so, at the cost of taking the country down the path of pro-cyclical austerity and overall neo liberal policy stance.”
The new team has succeeded in increasing the size of loan from $6 billion to $8 billion with the EFF arrangement extended through June 2023.
Raees Uddin Khan,
Research & Development Institute of Securities Management Research & Training (Pvt) Ltd, Karachi.
Dated: April 29, 2022